A new survey on the global international education market indicates a “resurgence” of the industry, with today’s five million enrolments reaching more than eight million by 2030.
Global market research agency HolonIQ carried out “a global estimate” on the market in a bigger “level of detail” than ever seen before, looking towards the next 10 years on a complete scale.
“Amid Covid and a broad-based digital transformation, it seems counter-intuitive to many that international education has such a bright future ahead of it,” Patrick Brothers, co-CEO of HolonIQ, told The PIE News.
“Over the course of 50+ years, however, the market has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience and the sheer demand from Asia, Africa and Latin America over the next 30 years underpins the strong outlook,” he continued.
The report predicts that total international education will grow from US$196bn pre-pandemic and reach $433bn by the end of the decade. It does concede that average expenditure per student “varies significantly by market and credential”, especially with regards to tuition.
It is an ambitious prediction, considering that the figures between 2010-19 show a $103bn growth – a fraction of what is predicted for 2021-30 of $237bn.
“There is a lower probability we might see a Covid induced acceleration or even a deceleration, but the sheer weight of demand and desire from students to study overseas suggests the market will ramp back up to long term averages in our view,” Brothers said.
Though only slightly probable, this so-called Covid induced activity, either acceleration or deceleration, is backed up by a survey regarding sentiment among students – in April 2021, only 50% of students surveyed expected “Slower than historic growth over the next five to 10 years”.
In January of this year, however, there was a “major shift in sentiment” among respondents, with 90% instead expecting “at least a long term average recovery”.
When coming to certain source markets, the HolonIQ data showed some differing findings. Despite 70% of global demand is in Asia and Africa, over half of the top 200 universities and 55% of the top 200-500 are in the US, UK, Canada or Australia.
The survey goes on to say that while 22.8 million students study at the top 1,000 universities, Asia and Africa “lack the post-secondary capacity to meet demand”.
Tuition around the world, as previously mentioned, “varies significantly” – around $10,000 up to $100,000 – within English-speaking advanced economies.
These figures vary once again looking at different source markets. The survey indicates – in the ‘big four’ countries – Australia, Canada, the UK and US – almost half of the expenditure there is through tuition, with accommodation and food following.
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