The Bureau of Market Research (BMR) has released new projections showing that South Africa’s population will reach 63.9 million by the middle of 2025, providing an updated view on the size and distribution of people across the country.
The report comes at a time when questions have been raised about the accuracy of past census data, particularly the 2022 census, which some analysts and institutions said contained gaps and undercounts. Accurate figures are critical because they are used by government departments, municipalities, and the private sector to guide service delivery, investment, and planning.
According to the head of the BMR’s population research division, Dr Joshua Kembo, the projections are designed to clear uncertainties around population size and to provide decision-makers with more reliable evidence.
He explained, “Given that many critical questions were aimed at the accuracy of available population estimates during the past few years, detailed population estimates of greatest likelihood are required to provide certainty in this regard.”
The new report does not stop at national totals. It provides population figures across multiple layers of geography, including provinces, district municipalities, local municipalities, main places, and even sub-places. This level of detail, Kembo noted, is important for stakeholders who need to understand where population growth and concentration are happening in South Africa.
He added, “These projections aim to update and expand the population evidence base at highly disaggregated levels, providing a detailed understanding of where population concentrations lie across the country. With this level of geographic detail, stakeholders are equipped to make more precise and locally informed decisions.”
The latest figures show that Gauteng remains the country’s most populous province with about 15.7 million people, representing 24.5% of the national total. By contrast, the Northern Cape continues to have the smallest population, estimated at 1.4 million people or just 2.2% of the population.
At the municipal level, the City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality is the largest, with nearly 5.9 million residents. On the other end, Laingsburg Local Municipality in the Northern Cape remains the smallest, with a population of just 9,710 people. Other sparsely populated areas in the province include Khâi-Ma (11,401), Kamiesberg (11,925) and Renosterberg (12,205).
Among local municipalities, Polokwane in Limpopo Province tops the list with more than 937,000 residents, reflecting both urbanisation and migration patterns in that part of the country.
The report also looks at population group composition. Black Africans make up 82.3% of the population, while Indians/Asians account for 2.6%. The figures also highlight gender distribution, with women representing about 51% of the population.
Demographic analysis suggests that South Africa is gradually shifting towards an ageing population, although the country still maintains a strong youth presence. This dual structure is seen as both an opportunity and a challenge: a youthful population drives labour and innovation, while an ageing population requires increased investment in healthcare and pensions.
Another highlight from the BMR report is the ranking of the top 30 metropolitan and district municipalities. The Uthukela District Municipality in KwaZulu-Natal sits in 30th place with an estimated 816,756 residents, while Johannesburg maintains its position at the top of the list.
Dr Kembo stressed that the projections are not just about numbers but also about the broader megatrends shaping South Africa’s society. These include population ageing, declining fertility rates, urbanisation, metrification, and high levels of inter-provincial migration as people move in search of jobs and opportunities.
He said these insights are crucial for both government and private sector decision-making. “These estimates support effective service delivery planning, particularly in areas such as healthcare, education, housing, and infrastructure, while also informing private sector marketing strategies and investment decisions.”
One of the key strengths of the report, according to the BMR, is that it provides high-resolution population data at main-place and sub-place levels. This allows policymakers and businesses to develop strategies tailored to the needs of specific communities, instead of relying only on national or provincial averages.
With the population set to approach 64 million in the next year, South Africa faces the challenge of managing growth while ensuring that services and infrastructure keep pace. The report underlines that data-driven planning will be essential to meet the needs of both urban and rural communities across the country.
