igeria recorded a trade surplus of N12.64 trillion in the first half of 2025, offering some relief for the country’s foreign exchange market even as concerns remain about structural weaknesses in the economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics released its second quarter foreign trade report showing that total exports in the first six months of 2025 stood at N43.35 trillion, representing a 17.5 per cent increase compared to N36.89 trillion in the same period of 2024. Imports, however, grew at a slower pace of 6.9 per cent, rising from N28.72 trillion in H1 2024 to N30.71 trillion in H1 2025.
This helped to improve Nigeria’s trade balance, which expanded by 54.6 per cent year-on-year, from N8.17 trillion in the first half of 2024 to N12.64 trillion in the same period of 2025.
Analysts say the development reflects two major trends: reduced imports due to high foreign exchange costs and government reforms discouraging import dependence, as well as improved exports from oil and non-oil sectors.
Afrinvest, in its weekly market note, said the stronger trade balance would support Nigeria’s external sector. “Overall, the solid improvement in the trade balance provides some respite for Nigeria’s external sector, which could help ease pressure in the FX market and support external reserves,” the firm noted. As of last Friday, the country’s foreign reserves stood at $41.69 billion.
Crude oil exports, however, recorded a year-on-year decline of 17.8 per cent but remained the largest contributor to foreign exchange inflows. Non-oil exports rose sharply by 56.6 per cent to N3 trillion, driven mainly by agricultural products, which grew by 29 per cent, and raw materials, which surged by 114.7 per cent. Products such as cocoa and sesame seeds benefited from stronger global demand.
A separate note by Cowry Research warned that Nigeria’s trade outlook is still vulnerable due to its reliance on oil, even though the country enjoyed rising export receipts. The firm said crude oil receipts weakened by 11.3 per cent year-on-year to N24.92 trillion in H1 2025 despite the average price of Bonny Light increasing to $77.52 per barrel.
“From the report, Nigeria’s foreign trade performance in the first half of 2025 reflects both the benefits of resilient export receipts and the moderating effect of policy-induced import compression. The sustained trade surplus strengthens the external sector and provides support for foreign exchange liquidity at a time of heightened pressure on reserves,” the Cowry Research note stated.
It added that while current gains are encouraging, Nigeria’s dependence on oil exports underscores structural risks. “The urgent need is to deepen non-oil export diversification to build a more resilient trade base in the face of global volatility. Import activity could rebound gradually as the FX market stabilises, but prolonged weakness will weigh on manufacturers.”
The NBS report also showed that exports to Africa stood at N2.97 trillion, accounting for 13.04 per cent of total exports. Trade within ECOWAS countries contributed N1.93 trillion, representing 64.99 per cent of intra-African trade.
