The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited is currently weighed down by crude-backed loan obligations estimated at N8.07tn, based on a detailed review of its 2024 financial statements and capital-commitment records. The debt exposures, spread across several forward-sale and project-financing agreements, require heavy crude oil and gas deliveries over the coming years.
These commitments have increasingly shaped NNPCL’s funding model as the company battles shrinking fiscal space, unstable oil production, and reduced investment in the upstream sector. Many of the facilities were taken to refinance old debts, stabilise cash flow, rehabilitate refineries, and meet essential government revenue targets.
One of the notable exposures is tied to the Eagle Export Funding structure. Although the 2024 financial statement states that “at least 1.8 million barrels” must be supplied per cycle, earlier records show the arrangement includes three loan tranches. The first was a $935m loan obtained in 2020 and backed by 30,000 barrels per day, which was fully repaid by September 2023. A second tranche of $635m was also cleared within that period.
The only outstanding component is the Eagle Export Funding Subsequent 2 Debt, a $900m loan secured in 2023 and tied to a delivery commitment of 21,000 barrels per day. Repayments were scheduled to start in June 2024, with the final maturity date set for 2028. By December 2024, the outstanding balance stood at N1.1tn, making it a major crude-delivery obligation.
NNPCL explained in its financial statement that the outstanding capital commitment of N1.1tn relates to crude deliveries under the forward-sale agreement with Eagle Export Funding Limited. The document noted that NEPL, the company’s upstream subsidiary, must nominate and deliver at least 1.8 million barrels in each delivery period starting from August 2020.
Another key liability arises from the incremental gas-supply financing agreement with Nigeria LNG Limited. Under the arrangement, NLNG advanced N772bn in upfront funding to NNPCL in exchange for future gas deliveries. By the end of 2024, gas worth N535bn had been supplied, while NLNG recovered N312bn, leaving an outstanding N460bn yet to be delivered. Financing charges of N12bn brought the total balance to N472bn.
Refinery rehabilitation projects also contribute significantly to NNPCL’s crude-backed debt load. The Port Harcourt Refinery upgrade is financed through Project Yield—a N1.5tn loan obtained in October 2022, structured for a seven-year tenure. The deal is secured with refined-product-equivalent deliveries amounting to 67,000 barrels per day. By the end of 2024, N1.4tn had already been drawn, with repayments expected to begin in June 2025 after a 30-month moratorium.
Another major facility, Project Leopard, carries an outstanding balance of N1.3tn. The five-year project-financing deal is secured with a crude-delivery commitment of 35,000 barrels daily. Repayments are expected to begin in mid-2025 following a six-month grace period.
The largest exposure, however, is linked to Project Gazelle—a massive crude-for-cash deal used to fund advance tax and royalty payments under Production Sharing Contract arrangements. By December 2024, NNPCL had drawn N4.9tn from the total N5.1tn facility. Crude worth N991bn had been delivered, leaving a substantial balance of N3.8tn. Project Gazelle requires the company to deliver 90,000 barrels daily until full repayment.
Combined, the major crude-for-loan deals—Eagle Export (21,000 bpd), Project Yield (67,000 bpd), Project Leopard (35,000 bpd), and Project Gazelle (90,000 bpd)—account for 213,000 barrels per day. This is in addition to gas-supply obligations under the NLNG financing deal. Analysts note that this commitment represents a significant portion of Nigeria’s total daily production and could affect government revenue, export volumes, and operational flexibility for years.
The analysis excludes non-debt obligations such as refinery equity stakes and callable capital, as they do not qualify as loan liabilities. Experts say the strain of the obligations exposes the country to risks linked to production shortfalls and volatile crude prices.
Earlier reports showed that Nigeria’s gross profit from crude oil and gas sales fell sharply by N824.66bn in 2024, despite slight improvements in output. The Budget Office of the Federation reported that gross profit dropped to N1.08tn from N1.90tn in 2023, representing a 43.32 per cent decline and falling far below the government’s N1.46tn target.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that national crude output rose from 392.66 million barrels in 2023 to 442.21 million barrels in 2024—an increase of 12.62 per cent. Daily average production rose to 1.43 million barrels per day, up from 1.27 million barrels per day.
The modest improvement was attributed to reduced pipeline vandalism, better coordination among joint-venture partners, and increased output from marginal-field operators. However, production still fell short of the 1.78 million barrels per day target used for the 2024 budget. This gap remains one of the major reasons oil-revenue inflows underperformed, despite the exchange-rate gains recorded during the year.
NNPCL’s revenue remittances have continued to attract scrutiny. The World Bank recently disclosed that NNPCL remitted only half of the gains from fuel-subsidy removal because the rest was used to settle debt arrears. The bank said the company remitted N600bn out of N1.1tn in 2024, leaving N500bn unaccounted for.
Oil and gas expert and CEO of AHA Strategies, Ademola Adigun, linked Nigeria’s weakening oil revenue to opaque crude-for-cash arrangements that tie up large volumes of the country’s oil. According to him, these deals reduce the volume available for fresh revenue, creating gaps in government earnings.
He added that many of the contracts were signed without proper disclosure or parliamentary oversight. He urged the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative to strengthen audits to determine how much crude is committed to debt repayments.
Development economist and CEO of CSA Advisory, Aliyu Ilias, warned that Nigeria’s crude-trading system had grown more complicated through swaps and oil-to-naira transactions that may not be fully captured in public records. He recommended a comprehensive audit to assess the fiscal impact of these short-term deals.
The Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, recalled that several forward-sale agreements were entered during the tenure of former Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele, when the government faced significant fiscal challenges. He said those commitments continue to erode current earnings.
However, Yusuf noted that the current NNPCL management, led by Bayo Ojulari, has made improvements in transparency and professionalism. He urged the government to publish the full details of all crude-swap and forward-sale contracts to restore confidence in oil-revenue reporting.
