A new study has raised alarm over the future of Africa’s Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry as artificial intelligence (AI) continues to spread across global markets. The report by Caribou Digital and Genesis Analytics, with support from the Mastercard Foundation, warns that by 2030, about 40 per cent of tasks in the continent’s tech outsourcing sector, including BPO and IT-enabled services (ITES), may be taken over by machines.
One of the sectors most affected is customer experience, which currently accounts for 44 per cent of jobs in the BPO industry. According to the report, half of the tasks in this area could be automated. Finance and accounting roles, especially at the junior level, also face serious risk, with nearly two-thirds of tasks possibly being handled by AI tools.
In Kenya, the BPO industry is growing fast. Market revenue is expected to hit $272.10 million by 2025, and could grow to $343.00 million by 2029, according to projections. In response to this growth, the Kenyan government has announced plans to create one million BPO and ITES jobs in the next five years. These jobs will be supported by friendly policies and government incentives.
However, automation could slow down this dream. The report stresses that only 10 per cent of tasks in the sector are fully protected from automation. This calls for urgent investment in upskilling, especially through AI training programs, to help workers move into more secure and better-paying roles.
Rodwell Mangisi, Director of Digital Economy Pan African Programs at the Mastercard Foundation, said, “Africa’s outsourcing industry is expanding quickly. As AI transforms how work is done, our continent must make sure workers are ready. By focusing on training women and young professionals, we can turn this growth into long-term success.”
Already, AI tools such as ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and in-house chatbots are being used in the sector to improve productivity, generate content, debug software, and offer better customer service. These tools free workers to focus on decision-making, problem-solving, and tasks that require human input.
Despite these gains, entry-level jobs, which make up 68 per cent of the workforce in the BPO industry, are highly vulnerable. More than half of tasks in these roles could be automated soon.
Charlene Migwe, Program Director at Caribou, noted that Africa is at a turning point. “With the right investment in skills, ethical AI use, and inclusive policies, the risks from automation can be turned into new chances for innovation,” she said.
The study also raises concern over gender gaps in automation. It shows that tasks done by women are 10 per cent more likely to be automated than those done by men. This puts women, who make up a large part of the BPO workforce, at higher risk of job loss if nothing is done.
To reduce the negative impact, experts recommend targeted upskilling in areas such as cybersecurity, AI management, and data services. These roles are expected to grow and offer better job security and higher pay.
The report concludes that while AI brings big opportunities, it also comes with serious challenges. Without proper planning, automation could hurt the very people the industry is meant to uplift—especially young people and women. Stakeholders are urged to act fast to ensure that no group is left behind.
