Fuel supply stability slowed again in October 2025 as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivered an average of only 17.1 million litres of petrol per day, leaving Nigeria heavily dependent on imported fuel. This update came from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which released its October 2025 Fact Sheet on the state of the midstream and downstream sector.
According to the report, Dangote Refinery supplied a total of 512.4 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) during the month. However, the country needed at least 1.5 billion litres to meet its monthly petrol consumption. The shortfall forced petroleum marketers to import an estimated 828 million litres to close the gap, averaging 27.6 million litres per day in additional supply.
The data obtained by our correspondent on Sunday also showed that Nigeria’s petrol consumption increased to 56.74 million litres per day in October, highlighting rising national demand despite the push for greater reliance on domestic refining. The figures confirmed that imported fuel still accounts for the majority of petrol used in the country, even after the Dangote Refinery commenced operations in September 2024 with high expectations for fuel self-sufficiency.
This development comes despite repeated assurances from the management of Dangote Industries Limited that the refinery has ramped up production significantly. On November 1, 2025, officials of the refinery said its daily output had surpassed national consumption levels. The Group Chief Branding and Communications Officer of Dangote Industries Limited, Anthony Chiejina, stated that the refinery was loading more than 45 million litres of PMS and 25 million litres of diesel daily. He argued that these volumes were above the country’s fuel needs.
Still, the October industry data paints a different picture. Government officials, relying on earlier assurances of higher domestic supply, had considered imposing a 15 per cent import duty on both petrol and diesel imports. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu approved the policy under a new “market-responsive import tariff framework.” In a letter dated October 21, 2025, and addressed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the NMDPRA, the President directed immediate implementation of the import duty aimed at protecting local refineries and stabilising the downstream market.
However, the move met resistance from industry operators who warned that the new duty could push fuel prices up sharply. As concerns grew over supply stability, the government suspended the implementation of the tariff until the first quarter of 2026.
The newly released NMDPRA data has now revealed that Dangote’s output still falls short of expectations, especially in the month the government considered implementing the levy. The regulator explained that its domestic supply figures were calculated from discharged volumes and refinery truck-outs, while imports were measured through depot shore receipts. It added that data for August 2024 to September 2025 had been fully reconciled, while October figures remained provisional.
Further analysis from the NMDPRA revealed that between October 2024 and October 2025, the Dangote Refinery supplied an average of 18.03 million litres of petrol per day. This is less than 52 per cent of its projected daily output of 35 million litres, highlighting a wide gap between planned and actual performance at the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility. The refinery’s production ramp-up has been closely linked to the government’s ambition to reduce dependence on imported fuel.
A review of the refinery’s monthly output shows an inconsistent pattern. In September 2024, its first month of operation, the facility supplied about three million litres per day. This rose to 10 million litres per day in October and nine million litres in November. Production grew slowly toward the end of 2024, reaching about 9.5 million litres per day in December before jumping to 18 million litres per day in January 2025. The refinery recorded its strongest performance in February 2025 with 25 million litres daily, the highest level so far and the closest it has come to meeting half of the country’s fuel demand.
But the momentum did not last long. Supply fell slightly to 23 million litres in March and 22 million litres in April. By May, daily supply had dropped to 18 million litres and continued to decline to about 16.5 million litres in June. Output rose again to 19.8 million litres in July but slipped to 17.6 million litres in August. For both September and October 2025, the refinery averaged 17.1 million litres per day, far below the planned 35-million-litre target.
Reacting to the trend, the President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Billy Gillis-Harry, said industry players fully support the Dangote Refinery but insist the latest figures show that Nigeria is still far from meeting its daily petrol needs through domestic production alone. He said the association wants the refinery to succeed, but every part of the oil and gas value chain must grow at the same pace to strengthen the economy.
Gillis-Harry stressed that despite Dangote’s improvements, the regulator’s latest numbers confirm that in-country production is not yet enough. He noted that the data also validates PETROAN’s earlier warning that petrol prices would have risen sharply if the government had gone ahead with the 15 per cent import duty on refined products.
The NMDPRA report also showed declining national petrol sufficiency levels. Between October and December 2024, Nigeria maintained an average of 20 days of PMS sufficiency. However, in October 2025, sufficiency dropped to just nine days, made up of seven days of inland stock and two days of marine stock. The regulator warned that this trend increases the risk of supply disruptions if imports are delayed, weather conditions worsen at ports, or foreign exchange shortages intensify. Meanwhile, diesel and aviation fuel recorded more stable sufficiency levels of 38 days and 35 days, respectively.
