South Africa could be heading into a tough winter as Eskom warns that the country may face up to 21 days of Stage 2 load shedding if the current rate of power station breakdowns continues. The power utility raised the alarm after breakdowns spiked to 15,137 megawatts on 26 June, crossing the 13,000 megawatt danger line and placing severe pressure on the national grid.
Eskom confirmed that the situation remains under control for now, stating that on the night of 26 June, the available power was 30,703 megawatts—enough to meet the peak demand of 28,810 megawatts. However, officials noted that the grid could quickly become unstable if breakdowns are not brought under control in the coming weeks.
A key contributor to the ongoing problem is the long-delayed repair of Medupi Power Station’s Unit 4, which has been offline since an explosion in 2021. That unit alone accounts for 800 megawatts of missing capacity, and the delay in restoring it to operation has added to the stress on the system. Eskom said the continued unavailability of this unit remains a significant constraint, especially during high-demand periods.
Eskom’s internal data paints a grim picture. From 20 to 26 June 2025, unplanned breakdowns averaged 14,696 megawatts—nearly 3,000 more than during the same period in 2023. This sharp rise in breakdowns reflects worsening conditions in the generation fleet, much of which is ageing and prone to failure.
Adding to Eskom’s woes are rising levels of criminal activity targeting the power infrastructure. The utility revealed that it lost R221 million to theft and vandalism between April 2024 and February 2025. While that figure is slightly lower than the R271 million lost in the previous year, the scale of the problem remains serious. In April, police arrested six individuals who were caught stealing Eskom property valued at R1.5 million. The suspects appeared in court on 7 April and are now facing charges.
Theft, illegal connections, and cable vandalism not only cost Eskom financially, but also damage the grid and contribute to outages in local communities. Eskom has once again warned the public against illegal electricity connections, explaining that such activities often result in overloaded transformers and extended blackouts.
Although Eskom slightly reduced planned maintenance in June to ensure more capacity was available during the cold months, the overall performance of its power plants remains below expectations. The energy availability factor (EAF)—which measures how much of the generation capacity is actually operational—stands at 58.47% for the year so far. This is worse than the performance recorded last year and well below Eskom’s 65% target.
To fill the gap during peak periods and avoid higher stages of load shedding, Eskom has continued using expensive diesel-powered open-cycle gas turbines. So far this year, the utility has spent R4.76 billion on diesel, underscoring the high financial cost of keeping the lights on during emergencies.
Eskom officials say the grid will be at risk throughout the winter months unless breakdowns can be managed and maintenance is improved. The 13,000 megawatt mark has been described as a critical threshold—anything above it places the system under pressure and increases the likelihood of load shedding. With the country already exceeding that limit in late June, the next few weeks will be crucial.
Eskom has not released a final load shedding schedule for July, but the warning about possible 21 days of Stage 2 cuts indicates that citizens should brace themselves for more dark nights if the situation does not improve. South Africans are being urged to use electricity sparingly, especially during peak hours between 5pm and 9pm.
The Department of Public Enterprises, which oversees Eskom, has yet to respond to the latest concerns. However, analysts say there is little Eskom can do in the short term without major investment in new capacity and improved reliability at its ageing plants.
Meanwhile, the government continues to encourage private generation and renewable energy projects to take pressure off Eskom’s struggling fleet. But these solutions are medium- to long-term, and for now, millions of households and businesses remain vulnerable to supply cuts.
With cold winter nights settling in and the demand for electricity rising, Eskom’s ability to manage breakdowns and prevent deeper stages of load shedding will determine the stability of South Africa’s power supply in the weeks ahead.
