Morocco’s economy is expected to slow down slightly in 2026, according to a new report released on Tuesday by the country’s official statistics agency, the High Commission for Planning (HCP). The agency said the economy will grow by 4% next year, compared to a higher growth of 4.4% expected in 2025.
The agency explained that the lower projection is due to several challenges in the global economy, especially the uncertainties surrounding international trade. These external issues, combined with domestic factors such as average agricultural output and growing imports, are likely to affect Morocco’s economic performance in the coming year.
In its detailed report, HCP said the slowdown will happen mainly because of lower demand for Moroccan goods in foreign markets. The agency also blamed the ongoing fragmentation of international trade, where countries are increasingly focusing on internal production and less on imports from other nations.
“The fragmentation of international trade and persistent uncertainties are expected to weigh on the growth of trade in goods and services, thereby limiting the recovery of foreign demand directed at Morocco,” the agency said in the report.
It is important to note that Morocco is heavily dependent on exports, especially of agricultural products, textiles, automotive parts, and phosphates. If global demand for these goods continues to fall, the country could face more economic pressure.
The report also revealed that Morocco’s wheat harvest in 2026 is expected to be average. This is a key indicator for the country’s economy, as agriculture contributes a significant portion of GDP and supports millions of jobs, especially in rural areas. A strong harvest usually supports growth, while a weak one often leads to higher food prices and lower incomes for farmers.
Meanwhile, the report noted that while exports may slow, domestic demand inside Morocco is still strong. People are spending more, which is good for businesses but also increasing the country’s import bill. As a result, the current account deficit—the difference between what Morocco earns from exports and spends on imports—is expected to rise slightly.
The agency forecast the current account deficit to widen to 1.9% of GDP in 2026, up from 1.8% projected for 2025. This means the country will spend more on foreign goods and services than it earns from exporting its own.
On the fiscal side, however, there was some good news. HCP said Morocco’s budget deficit—the gap between government income and spending—would improve slightly in 2026. The deficit is projected to narrow to 3.4% of GDP from 3.6% in 2025. This is because the government is expecting higher revenue from taxes, which will help cover the cost of public spending.
Morocco has been increasing public investment in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, which contributes to higher spending. But with better tax collection and improved revenue systems, the government hopes to balance its books more effectively.
Economic experts in the North African country have advised the government to diversify its exports and reduce its reliance on a few key markets. They also recommend more support for local industries to meet domestic demand and reduce pressure on imports.
In recent years, Morocco has made major investments in renewable energy, tourism, and manufacturing. These sectors are seen as future growth drivers that could help the country withstand external shocks such as trade disruptions or climate-related challenges.
As 2026 approaches, the government and the private sector will be watching global markets closely, especially in Europe, which remains Morocco’s largest trading partner. Any slowdown in Europe could also affect Morocco’s economic prospects.
The report by HCP comes at a time when many African countries are also reviewing their growth targets and fiscal plans due to global inflation, tighter financial conditions, and geopolitical tensions that are impacting trade routes and commodity prices.
