The naira appreciated against the United States dollar in the official foreign exchange market on Monday, closing at ₦1,465.29 per dollar, even as Nigeria recorded a sharp 33 per cent drop in weekly foreign exchange inflows, according to data from Coronation Merchant Bank Limited.
Analysts told MarketForces Africa that the lower foreign exchange inflows explained the mild exchange rate volatility seen in recent trading sessions. However, they noted that the local currency remained relatively stable as liquidity levels across the banking system stayed strong.
Figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the naira gained 0.69 per cent, reaching an intraday high of ₦1,470 per dollar, compared with the previous close of ₦1,482 per dollar on Friday. The apex bank reportedly intervened in the market, selling about $70 million to commercial banks to improve dollar supply and maintain rate stability.
At the parallel market, however, the naira weakened slightly by 1.07 per cent, trading around ₦1,500 per dollar in Lagos and Abuja, reflecting continued demand pressures from importers and individuals unable to access foreign exchange through official channels.
Market analysts attributed the slight divergence between the official and parallel market rates to uneven liquidity levels and seasonal demand, especially from businesses preparing for year-end import activities. They added that despite the dip in inflows, the CBN’s steady intervention and rising reserves provided enough support to keep the naira stable in the near term.
Data from the CBN also indicated that Nigeria’s external reserves climbed to $42.696 billion last week, driven by moderate inflows from crude oil earnings and limited withdrawals for debt servicing and import payments. Analysts expect additional inflows from remittances and portfolio investments to strengthen the reserves further in the coming weeks.
A senior currency trader in Lagos, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said, “The CBN’s intervention has provided short-term stability. The market remains liquid enough to absorb temporary shocks. What we need to watch is how consistent the inflows are, especially as oil prices face new pressures.”
Meanwhile, on the global front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a potential oil supply surplus in 2026, a development that could weigh on oil prices if global demand fails to pick up. Nigeria, whose economy depends heavily on crude oil exports for foreign exchange earnings, may face renewed pressure on reserves if oil prices weaken.
Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.5 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories to 423.8 million barrels, far above market expectations. The increase was linked to lower refinery runs caused by seasonal maintenance, signalling reduced demand for crude in the short term.
Analysts said that these developments in the oil market could indirectly affect Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook, especially if global energy demand slows due to geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.
Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China have rekindled fears of slower global economic growth. This, combined with weaker industrial output across major economies, could suppress crude oil prices and reduce Nigeria’s earnings from oil exports.
However, currency experts remain cautiously optimistic. They expect the naira to trade within a narrow band this week as the CBN maintains its intervention strategy and monitors liquidity in both the official and parallel markets.
“Despite short-term fluctuations, we don’t expect any major depreciation this week,” said a Lagos-based financial analyst. “The authorities appear determined to keep the naira stable through consistent intervention and stronger oversight of the foreign exchange market.”
Analysts also said the expected rise in remittance inflows towards the end of the year, coupled with continued reforms in the foreign exchange management system, could help sustain the naira’s positive momentum.
As of Monday’s close, traders reported that dollar supply remained steady across commercial banks, while demand from importers and corporate clients was manageable. Many market participants believe the naira could remain within the ₦1,450–₦1,500 range in the short term, barring any unexpected global oil shocks or policy changes.
The federal government’s ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms—especially efforts to unify exchange rates and attract foreign investments—are also expected to improve investor confidence and strengthen the country’s foreign reserves position over time.
