The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that Nigeria must generate at least 27 million new formal jobs within the next five years or face a surge in unemployment and underemployment to around 30 per cent by 2030.
The warning was contained in the NESG’s Jobs and Productivity Report, released on Monday on the sidelines of the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES#31) in Abuja.
According to the report, Nigeria’s working-age population is projected to reach 168 million by 2030, creating what it described as a “critical window” for stabilising the labour market and achieving inclusive economic growth.
“With the working-age population projected to reach 168 million by 2030, the country faces a defining challenge: to create 27 million new formal jobs or risk unemployment and underemployment rates doubling to 30 per cent,” the report stated.
The NESG said that jobs and productivity remain central to Nigeria’s economic future, adding that without large-scale job creation, millions of youths would remain trapped in low-income informal work.
“Achieving this will be crucial to absorbing new entrants into the labour market and transitioning workers from low-productivity informal jobs into formal employment,” it added.
The group identified key barriers to job creation, including a shallow private sector base, poor alignment between education and labour market needs, skills shortages, weak infrastructure, and a regulatory environment that discourages investment and expansion.
It also noted that Nigeria’s current growth pattern is largely “jobless,” with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increases failing to translate into new employment opportunities.
To reverse the trend, the think-tank urged the government to embark on coordinated reforms across sectors, prioritising industries with high job-creation potential such as manufacturing (including agro-processing), construction, information and communications technology (ICT), and professional services.
“Key sectors that should drive formal job creation include manufacturing, construction, ICT, and professional services,” the NESG said. “Collectively, they are expected to contribute about 35 per cent (9.7 million) of new formal jobs, while manufacturing alone will account for 21 per cent.”
It added that addressing Nigeria’s low productivity and weak private sector growth must be treated as a national emergency through a Jobs and Productivity Agenda that brings together government, private sector, and development partners.
“The success of this agenda will depend on stakeholder collaboration, robust data systems, continuous monitoring, and strong government commitment to reforms,” the report stated.
The NESG also proposed a Nigeria Works Framework built around six pillars — Skills for Productivity, Sectoral Engines of Job Growth, Enterprise-Led Growth, Data, Institutions and Accountability, and Productivity for Prosperity.
This framework, it said, is designed to guide Nigeria toward higher productivity, competitive industries, and better-quality jobs capable of lifting millions out of poverty.
The report draws on data analysis, scenario modelling, and stakeholder consultations to assess the state of employment and productivity in the country, concluding that only sustained, inclusive economic transformation can avert a worsening jobs crisis.
