Nigerians consumed a total of 613.62 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, between October 2024 and October 10, 2025, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The data, obtained in Abuja, revealed that despite increased local refining activities, imported petrol still accounted for 63 per cent of the total fuel supplied within the period. The remaining 37 per cent came from domestic refineries, led by the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other local plants.
Of the total volume consumed, 236.08 million litres were produced locally, while 377.54 million litres were imported, showing that Nigeria remains heavily dependent on foreign supply for its fuel needs.
The report indicated that domestic production has improved significantly, rising from 9.62 million litres per day in October 2024 to 18.93 million litres per day by October 2025, representing almost a 100 per cent increase within a year. Conversely, petrol imports declined sharply from 46.38 million litres per day in October 2024 to 15.11 million litres per day in October 2025, marking a 67 per cent reduction in import volumes.
A monthly breakdown of the data showed that importation dropped progressively over the months from 46.38 million litres in October 2024 to 36.39 million litres in November, and 38.90 million litres in December. Imports fell further to 24.15 million litres in January 2025, with fluctuations through February (26.79 million litres), March (25.19 million litres), and April (23.73 million litres). Import levels temporarily rebounded to 37.37 million litres in May, before dropping again to 28.54 million litres in June, 35.07 million litres in July, 20.66 million litres in August, 19.26 million litres in September, and 15.11 million litres by October 2025.
In contrast, domestic refining output maintained a steady upward trend. Production grew from 9.62 million litres in October 2024 to 19.36 million litres in November, and though it dipped slightly to 13.13 million litres in December, it rebounded to 22.66 million litres in January 2025. From February to April, local output remained strong at over 20 million litres daily, with slight declines in May (17.85 million litres), June (17.82 million litres), and July (16.50 million litres) before stabilising at 18.93 million litres by October 2025.
The NMDPRA report also showed that total petrol supply averaged 46.6 million litres per day, comprising 29.5 million litres from imports and about 17.1 million litres from local production. Analysts say the trend marks a major shift in Nigeria’s fuel supply structure, with local refineries gradually closing the gap left by imports.
The improvement in domestic supply has also eased pressure on Nigeria’s foreign reserves, as the country spends less on importing refined petroleum products. In previous years, importers spent billions of dollars each month to settle letters of credit, freight, and insurance costs for imported fuel.
However, the report noted that total supply volumes fluctuated due to logistical challenges and refinery maintenance, dropping from 55.21 million litres in May 2025 to 34.04 million litres in October 2025.
Oil and gas analysts link the improvement in domestic supply to the first full year of large-scale operations of the Dangote Refinery, which began steady production earlier in 2025. The refinery currently contributes between 15 and 20 million litres of PMS daily to Nigeria’s market.
Commissioned in May 2023, the Dangote Refinery has become the flagship of Nigeria’s industrial transformation agenda. Within a year of sustained operation, the facility has reshaped the fuel supply landscape, reduced foreign exchange exposure, and rekindled optimism for self-sufficiency after years of failed efforts to revive the government-owned Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries.
Commenting on the latest data, Chief Executive Officer of Petroleum.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, said Nigeria’s local refining capacity had recorded remarkable progress over the past year, with Dangote Refinery now supplying roughly 40 per cent of the nation’s daily fuel needs.
“The fact that import remains the country’s major source of refined products shows that there are still unresolved issues. In the last year, domestic supply championed by Dangote Refinery has made tremendous progress with about 40 per cent of our daily consumption. Dangote Refinery needs 100 per cent access to crude in naira to increase domestic supply and drive down prices at the pump,” Jeremiah said.
He noted that despite being Africa’s biggest crude oil producer and home to the continent’s largest refinery, Nigeria still imports nearly 60 per cent of its daily petrol needs. He described the situation as inconsistent with the country’s energy potential.
Jeremiah urged the Federal Government and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to implement stronger policies that guarantee local refineries full access to domestic crude oil at naira-denominated prices.
“Nigeria, the biggest producer of crude in Africa with the biggest refinery in Africa, should not be importing about 60 per cent of its daily fuel consumption. Our pump prices should be among the lowest in the world. The FG, through NUPRC, should continue to formulate frameworks that allow local refiners access to crude 100 per cent. That’s the real recipe for availability and affordability,” he said.
Industry watchers believe that if the current production trend continues and local refineries are given full crude access, Nigeria could achieve fuel self-sufficiency within the next two years, reduce petrol prices, and end decades of dependency on imports.
