Home Banking Nigeria Needs 21.9% Annual Growth to Achieve $1 Trillion Economy by 2031 – Afrinvest Report

Nigeria Needs 21.9% Annual Growth to Achieve $1 Trillion Economy by 2031 – Afrinvest Report

by Radarr Africa

Nigeria will require a minimum annual growth rate of 21.9 percent at an exchange rate of N1,500 per dollar, or a stronger exchange rate with slower growth, to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2031. This projection was made by Afrinvest West Africa Limited in its 20th Nigeria Banking Sector Report 2025, titled “ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion Dollar Economy.”

According to the report, Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) put the economy’s nominal size in 2024 at N372.8 trillion, equivalent to $251 billion using the average exchange rate of N1,484.99 per dollar. This represents a 34.4 percent increase from the previous base year, which had placed the GDP at N277.5 trillion. Despite this growth, Afrinvest said the country must push harder to close gaps that continue to hold back its economic potential.

The report stressed that achieving the $1 trillion economy target requires decisive reforms, transparent governance, and bold policy actions. It proposed that the government adopt a framework called “ACT-BOLD” to reengineer Nigeria’s economy. This approach calls for accountability, courage, transparency, and strong leadership in decision-making.

Afrinvest noted that while President Bola Tinubu’s administration has expressed confidence in the ability of Nigeria’s banking sector to support the $1 trillion economy ambition, significant hurdles remain. Issues such as unstable foreign exchange, weak productivity growth, insecurity, infrastructure gaps, and high inflation continue to limit broad-based economic expansion.

The unveiling of the 2025 Banking Sector Report also marked Afrinvest’s 30th anniversary. The event, which attracted financial sector stakeholders, market leaders, and policymakers, was held to reflect on Nigeria’s economic journey and provide insights into its future direction.

Speaking at the unveiling, the Group Managing Director of Afrinvest West Africa Limited, Dr. Ike Chioke, described the company’s three decades of operations as a journey of resilience, innovation, and leadership. He explained that since its first edition in 2006, the Nigeria Banking Sector Report has served as a valuable guide for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions navigating the country’s economic challenges.

Chioke said Afrinvest remained committed to shaping financial markets and providing data-driven research to support Nigeria’s development. He pointed out that the company’s continuous publication of the Banking Sector Report reflects its dedication to helping both government and private sector players understand and respond to economic changes.

The report highlighted that Nigeria’s ability to achieve a $1 trillion economy depends not just on banking sector support but also on comprehensive reforms across agriculture, energy, technology, and industrial sectors. It noted that the banking industry can play a catalytic role in channeling credit to productive sectors, improving financial inclusion, and boosting investment.

However, Afrinvest warned that without bold action to address policy inconsistencies and structural challenges, Nigeria risks falling behind other emerging economies. The report emphasised the need for stronger fiscal discipline, better coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and deliberate strategies to strengthen the naira.

It also called for reforms to deepen capital markets, attract foreign direct investment, and unlock opportunities in the digital economy. According to Afrinvest, Nigeria’s young and tech-savvy population offers huge potential for innovation-driven growth, provided that government policies create an enabling environment.

The 2025 report, “ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion Dollar Economy,” concluded that Nigeria’s path to a trillion-dollar economy requires bold reforms rather than cautious steps. It urged policymakers to prioritise economic diversification, invest in infrastructure, and ensure good governance to rebuild investor confidence.

With 2031 just six years away, Afrinvest’s projection serves as both a warning and a roadmap, highlighting that achieving a trillion-dollar economy is possible, but only if Nigeria embraces bold reforms and overcomes its structural weaknesses.

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