international market, up from $65, after news broke of Israel’s surprise strike on Hamas targets in Qatar. The development, which rattled the oil market, immediately triggered fears of supply disruption from the Middle East, a region critical to global energy security. Qatar, although no longer a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), remains one of the world’s biggest producers of oil and gas, and the reported attack sparked fresh speculation among traders and analysts.
The sudden rise in Nigeria’s Bonny Light comes alongside a similar upward movement in Brent crude, which is used to benchmark other global crude prices. Brent crude traded at $66.58 per barrel, reflecting an increase of more than one dollar compared to its pre-attack price of $65. Market watchers say the volatility reflects growing investor anxiety and the uncertain direction of global oil prices as political tensions intensify in the Gulf.
Despite the temporary increase, the current prices are still below the benchmark projection of $75 per barrel set in Nigeria’s 2025 national budget. The budget framework, which also assumed daily production of 2.06 million barrels and an exchange rate of N1,500 to one US dollar, may face significant pressure if the global oil market remains unstable. Analysts fear that sustained lower prices could create challenges for Nigeria’s revenue projections and foreign exchange inflows.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, recently announced a decision to ease production cuts starting from October 2025. According to the group, the move will reintroduce 137,000 barrels per day into the market. This adjustment was initially agreed upon to stabilize prices following years of weak demand and disruptions caused by global economic slowdowns. However, with the new geopolitical tension, experts believe the timing of the decision could put further downward pressure on oil prices.
Mazi Colman Obasi, the National President of the Oil and Gas Service Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), reacted to the development by warning that increasing supply now could reduce the gains made in recent weeks. He said, “Relaxing oil cuts at this time means increasing supply, which is expected to culminate in pumping additional supplies to the market, thus causing prices to drop below $60 per barrel.” He stressed that such a drop would have direct implications for Nigeria’s economy, as the government depends heavily on oil earnings to fund public expenditure.
Another analyst noted that Nigeria could face a double challenge if the cuts are eased, since the 2025 budget projections may not be fully realizable. The expert explained that while the government is hoping for $75 per barrel, the market trend suggests that prices could continue fluctuating between $60 and $67 per barrel in the near term. This could affect the implementation of key budgetary programmes and slow down government spending on infrastructure, health, and education.
OPEC+ in its statement emphasized that the decision to adjust production levels was not final and could be paused or reversed depending on how market conditions evolve in the coming months. The cartel pointed out that flexibility was necessary to balance the interests of producers and consumers while preventing any major economic shocks.
For Nigeria, the rise of Bonny Light to $67 per barrel brings some temporary relief, but the uncertainty surrounding global supply, coupled with political unrest in the Middle East and OPEC+ policy shifts, means the oil market outlook remains fragile. Policymakers in Abuja are now closely monitoring these developments, as the nation’s economy continues to rely on crude oil as its primary source of revenue and foreign exchange earnings.
With the global oil industry facing both political and market pressures, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Nigeria can meet its revenue targets or face another round of budget shortfalls. The oil market’s reaction to the Israel-Qatar tensions and the OPEC+ production policy will play a key role in shaping the country’s economic future.
