Nigeria’s daily crude oil production has dropped again in March 2025, raising more concerns about the country’s ability to meet its budget plans for the year. This is coming at a time when crude oil prices are crashing globally, making things more difficult for oil-dependent countries like Nigeria.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s daily crude oil production in March was 1.40 million barrels per day (mbpd). This is a drop from 1.465 mbpd recorded in February. This decline shows a downward trend that started after January 2025 when the country briefly exceeded its OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.
In January, things were looking hopeful. Crude oil output went slightly above the OPEC-approved limit, and many industry experts were optimistic that Nigeria could meet its 2025 goal of producing 2 million barrels of oil per day. But this excitement was short-lived, as February saw a decline, and the situation worsened in March.
More detailed figures from the NUPRC showed that the combined oil production, including condensates, dropped from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February, and further to 1.603 mbpd in March. In March alone, the lowest daily output was 1.49 million barrels, while the highest was 1.76 million barrels. On average, crude oil production for the month stood at 1,400,783 barrels per day, while condensates contributed 202,993 barrels daily.
This output is about 93 percent of the quota Nigeria received from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which means the country once again failed to meet the full quota.
This is not the first time Nigeria has missed its target. In fact, the country failed to meet its OPEC quota throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. In December 2024, Nigeria managed to produce only 1.4 mbpd. But in January 2025, there was a slight improvement to 1.5 mbpd, raising hopes that the new year would be different. Unfortunately, that hope has started to fade.
Experts and stakeholders have repeatedly blamed the drop in production on several challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and aging infrastructure in the oil sector. These issues have persisted for years and continue to affect Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil production goals.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has remained confident in the country’s oil production target. He believes Nigeria can hit a total of 3 mbpd, including condensates, by the end of 2025. He also said that Nigeria would follow the “Drill, baby drill” strategy, similar to what former U.S. President Donald Trump promoted during his time in office.
Lokpobiri noted that the country’s plan to increase output would not affect its agreement with OPEC, but with the current trend, many Nigerians and industry experts are beginning to doubt if the country can meet that target.
At the same time, global oil prices have dropped significantly, making things even worse for Nigeria’s economy. The Federal Government had projected oil prices to be around $75 per barrel in the 2025 budget. But as of Sunday, Brent crude was selling at $64.76 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $61.50 per barrel — both more than $10 below the budget benchmark.
Adding to the problem, Nigeria’s crude oil is now facing low demand in the global market. According to a recent report by Argus Media, many European buyers are going for cheaper alternatives such as U.S. WTI, Caspian CPC Blend, and some Mediterranean oil grades. The report also noted that about 15 Nigerian oil cargoes scheduled for loading in April have not yet found buyers, and the trading cycle has already moved on to May.
This situation is a major concern for Nigeria, as crude oil sales remain the country’s biggest source of income. With low production and low prices, the government might struggle to fund its budget, pay salaries, and meet other national needs unless urgent steps are taken to stabilize the oil sector.
Nigeria’s daily crude oil production has dropped again in March 2025, raising more concerns about the country’s ability to meet its budget plans for the year. This is coming at a time when crude oil prices are crashing globally, making things more difficult for oil-dependent countries like Nigeria.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s daily crude oil production in March was 1.40 million barrels per day (mbpd). This is a drop from 1.465 mbpd recorded in February. This decline shows a downward trend that started after January 2025 when the country briefly exceeded its OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.
In January, things were looking hopeful. Crude oil output went slightly above the OPEC-approved limit, and many industry experts were optimistic that Nigeria could meet its 2025 goal of producing 2 million barrels of oil per day. But this excitement was short-lived, as February saw a decline, and the situation worsened in March.
More detailed figures from the NUPRC showed that the combined oil production, including condensates, dropped from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February, and further to 1.603 mbpd in March. In March alone, the lowest daily output was 1.49 million barrels, while the highest was 1.76 million barrels. On average, crude oil production for the month stood at 1,400,783 barrels per day, while condensates contributed 202,993 barrels daily.
This output is about 93 percent of the quota Nigeria received from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which means the country once again failed to meet the full quota.
This is not the first time Nigeria has missed its target. In fact, the country failed to meet its OPEC quota throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. In December 2024, Nigeria managed to produce only 1.4 mbpd. But in January 2025, there was a slight improvement to 1.5 mbpd, raising hopes that the new year would be different. Unfortunately, that hope has started to fade.
Experts and stakeholders have repeatedly blamed the drop in production on several challenges, including crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and aging infrastructure in the oil sector. These issues have persisted for years and continue to affect Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil production goals.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has remained confident in the country’s oil production target. He believes Nigeria can hit a total of 3 mbpd, including condensates, by the end of 2025. He also said that Nigeria would follow the “Drill, baby drill” strategy, similar to what former U.S. President Donald Trump promoted during his time in office.
Lokpobiri noted that the country’s plan to increase output would not affect its agreement with OPEC, but with the current trend, many Nigerians and industry experts are beginning to doubt if the country can meet that target.
At the same time, global oil prices have dropped significantly, making things even worse for Nigeria’s economy. The Federal Government had projected oil prices to be around $75 per barrel in the 2025 budget. But as of Sunday, Brent crude was selling at $64.76 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $61.50 per barrel — both more than $10 below the budget benchmark.
Adding to the problem, Nigeria’s crude oil is now facing low demand in the global market, many European buyers are going for cheaper alternatives such as U.S. WTI, Caspian CPC Blend, and some Mediterranean oil grades. The report also noted that about 15 Nigerian oil cargoes scheduled for loading in April have not yet found buyers, and the trading cycle has already moved on to May.
This situation is a major concern for Nigeria, as crude oil sales remain the country’s biggest source of income. With low production and low prices, the government might struggle to fund its budget, pay salaries, and meet other national needs unless urgent steps are taken to stabilize the oil sector.
