Nigeria’s crude oil production fell again in August, reversing recent gains that had lifted the country above its OPEC quota for two consecutive months. The drop has raised fresh concerns about the stability of the nation’s oil sector and its ability to meet ambitious production targets set by the government.
According to fresh figures released by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria produced an average of 1.43 million barrels of crude oil per day (mbpd) in August 2025. This represents a sharp decline from 1.507 mbpd in July and 1.505 mbpd in June. The fall means Nigeria missed its OPEC-approved quota of 1.5 mbpd by about 66,000 barrels daily.
The decline also marked a setback to the government’s earlier achievements. In July, the federal government celebrated crossing the OPEC quota for the second month in a row, calling it a significant recovery for Africa’s largest oil producer. However, the August performance showed a drop of 73,000 barrels per day from July’s output, interrupting the recovery narrative.
Industry records show that Nigeria’s crude oil output has fluctuated throughout the year. In January, production peaked at 1.54 mbpd, surpassing the quota, before slipping to 1.46 mbpd in February and further down to 1.40 mbpd in March. The figure rose again to 1.48 mbpd in April, declined slightly to 1.45 mbpd in May, and climbed above quota levels in June and July. But the August reversal has again placed the country below target.
Despite the setback, government officials insist that Nigeria is still on course to increase production significantly. The Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mr. Gbenga Komolafe, pointed to the administration’s Project One Million Barrels Initiative launched in 2024. He explained that Nigeria had raised combined crude and condensate output from 1.4 mbpd to between 1.7 and 1.83 mbpd through the reactivation of dormant fields, faster regulatory approvals, and improved operational efficiencies.
Komolafe maintained that the government’s reforms had already boosted daily production by about 300,000 barrels. He said the initiative is on track to increase production to 2.5 mbpd by 2026, stressing that the August figures did not change the broader outlook.
“When you look at unreconciled daily production, we are averaging between 1.7 and 1.83 million barrels per day. The target of 2.5 mbpd by 2026 remains achievable, given the momentum,” Komolafe said.
At the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), the Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Bayo Ojulari, also expressed optimism. Speaking shortly after the inauguration of the new NNPC board led by Chairman Ahmadu Kida in May, Ojulari said the company had already recorded increases in production. He stated that output rose from 1.5 mbpd to 1.7 mbpd within two months, with expectations of hitting 1.9 mbpd by December 2025.
Ojulari added that the new management team was focused on optimising operations, including turnaround maintenance of refineries. “We will promise what we can deliver, and we will deliver on our promise,” he assured.
President Bola Tinubu had earlier mandated the new NNPC leadership to raise oil production to two million barrels daily by 2027 and three million barrels by 2030. The government also set gas production targets of eight billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 10 billion cubic feet by 2030, while refining output is expected to grow to 200,000 barrels by 2027 and 500,000 barrels by 2030.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr. Heineken Lokpobiri, has consistently maintained that Nigeria has the capacity to produce three million barrels daily. He argued that with improved security in the Niger Delta and stronger investment in upstream operations, the target is realistic.
However, industry analysts note that Nigeria’s oil sector has struggled with challenges such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, operational disruptions, and underinvestment. These factors have caused repeated failures to meet OPEC quotas in recent years. Between 2022 and 2024, the country consistently missed its assigned production levels.
In early 2025, Nigeria recorded a strong start by producing 1.539 mbpd in January, slightly above quota. The brief achievement in June and July was seen as a positive signal by investors. But the August slip underscored the volatility of the sector and the difficulty in sustaining gains.
Analysts say that unless the government addresses security issues, infrastructure gaps, and funding constraints, the ambitious targets of hitting two million barrels daily in the medium term may remain out of reach.
For now, the August figures represent a warning that Nigeria’s oil recovery remains fragile despite government optimism and reforms.
