Nigeria’s earnings from crude oil exports fell sharply in the first two months of 2025, dropping by 17 percent year-on-year to $6.68 billion, according to figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The decline was driven by a fall in crude oil prices, especially in February, despite higher production levels compared to the same period last year.
An analysis of the CBN’s January and February 2025 monthly economic reports, showed that the average price of Bonny Light, Nigeria’s premium crude oil grade, dropped to $78.93 per barrel in the first two months of 2025. This represents a 6 percent decline from the $84.13 per barrel recorded in the same period of 2024.
This price drop led to a significant fall in Nigeria’s crude oil revenue, even though production increased. In the same timeframe, Nigeria’s average daily crude oil output rose by 23 percent year-on-year, from 1.38 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025. Despite pumping more oil, the country earned less, highlighting the sensitivity of Nigeria’s oil revenue to fluctuations in global crude prices.
A closer look at the monthly performance showed that January 2025 recorded a modest increase in earnings. Crude oil export revenue in January rose by 1.8 percent year-on-year to $3.86 billion from $3.79 billion in January 2024. This gain, however, was completely reversed in February.
In February 2025, oil export earnings plummeted to $2.82 billion, down from $4.27 billion recorded in the same month of 2024. That marks a steep 34 percent drop, which pulled down the total earnings for the two-month period.
The CBN attributed the February slump to a combination of factors, including falling oil prices and lower domestic crude oil output during the month. The CBN’s February Monthly Economic Report stated: “Disaggregation indicated that crude oil exports receipts declined by 1.00 per cent to US$2.82 billion, from US$2.84 billion in the preceding month, owing to a decline in crude oil price and domestic production.”
Gas export earnings also declined in the same month. According to the CBN, revenue from gas exports dropped by 0.84 percent to $0.53 billion in February 2025, from $0.54 billion in January 2025.
Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports for its foreign exchange and government revenue means that fluctuations in global oil prices have direct consequences on its fiscal health. With oil still accounting for more than 80 percent of Nigeria’s export earnings and over half of government revenue, these recent figures have raised concerns among economic analysts.
Many experts have pointed to the urgent need for Nigeria to diversify its revenue base and reduce dependence on crude oil. Others are calling for more investments in refining capacity and downstream operations to capture more value locally, especially since the Dangote Refinery is now operational and expected to play a significant role in reducing the country’s import dependence for refined products.
For now, the challenge remains in navigating the volatile oil market while stabilizing the economy. With global oil prices influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and shifts in demand due to green energy policies, Nigeria’s economic managers are under pressure to implement reforms and stimulate non-oil sectors.
