The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are still giving different forecasts for the oil market over the next two years. Their latest reports show a clear gap in expectations for global oil demand and supply, reflecting the uncertainty facing the energy sector.
In its new monthly oil market report, OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2026. The group now expects demand to grow by 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd), citing a more positive economic outlook in major oil-consuming regions. It particularly believes that countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)—which includes economies in North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa—will see a recovery that will drive consumption higher.
For 2025, OPEC is keeping its earlier forecast of a 1.29 million bpd increase in global demand. This means it expects total global oil consumption to reach 106.36 million bpd in the last quarter of this year. Looking further ahead, OPEC predicts that in 2026 global demand will hit 106.52 million bpd, which is 100,000 bpd higher than its previous estimate.
OPEC also sees Brazil as the main driver of production growth among countries outside the OPEC+ group. According to its analysis, Brazil will overtake the United States in leading non-OPEC+ oil production increases during this period.
On the other hand, the IEA is taking a more cautious approach. The Paris-based agency has again lowered its forecast for global demand growth, warning of “sluggish demand” in some of the world’s largest economies. It says consumer confidence is still low, especially in Europe and parts of Asia, and this makes a rapid rebound in demand less likely.
While the IEA is less optimistic about demand, it is more bullish on supply. It now expects global oil supply to rise by 2.5 million bpd in 2025—higher than its earlier estimate of 2.1 million bpd. For 2026, it predicts a further 1.9 million bpd increase in supply. The IEA says this will come from both OPEC+ members and other producing countries. However, it warns that ongoing sanctions on Russia and Iran could reduce the amount of oil these two countries can sell, posing risks to supply growth.
The difference in these forecasts shows just how complex and unpredictable the oil market can be. Many factors influence the balance between supply and demand, including the pace of global economic growth, production policies in key oil-producing countries, and geopolitical issues such as sanctions.
For oil-importing countries, these conflicting forecasts could make planning more difficult, as the market may not behave as one single agency predicts. For oil-exporting countries, the uncertainty could also affect investment decisions and production strategies in the coming years.
Analysts believe that as 2026 gets closer, the gap between OPEC and IEA projections will remain an important factor for traders, governments, and investors. The two organizations play a big role in shaping expectations, and their reports can influence oil prices in the short and medium term.
With both agencies standing firm on their different views, the oil market is likely to continue experiencing price swings. Until there is more clarity on global economic performance and geopolitical risks, the sector will remain under pressure to adapt to changing realities.
