The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has expressed disagreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over its latest economic growth forecast for Nigeria. The IMF had recently revised its 2025 growth projection for the country downward from 3.2 per cent to 3.0 per cent, blaming the expected global drop in oil prices as a major reason. However, the Nigerian think tank argues that the projection is misleading and fails to consider ongoing economic reforms and growth in non-oil sectors.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr. Omoniyi Akinsiju, the IMPI said the Nigerian economy is no longer solely dependent on oil, thanks to deliberate efforts by the government to diversify the economy. The group believes that the country is on a better economic path and supports the more optimistic seven per cent growth projection given by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun.
The IMF had also downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.7 per cent, citing oil price risks and their impact on Nigeria’s fiscal and external balances. But the IMPI questioned why the IMF would base a national economic outlook mainly on oil performance when Nigeria has shown significant improvements in sectors such as agriculture, telecommunications, financial services, and information technology.
The policy group noted that the World Bank, in contrast, projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6 per cent in 2025 and could reach 3.8 per cent by 2027. According to the World Bank, the government’s ongoing economic reforms and improvements in the macroeconomic environment are beginning to yield positive results.
The World Bank also highlighted the importance of the non-oil sector in Nigeria’s recovery and praised the impact of reforms on easing inflation, improving business confidence, and driving growth in services.
The IMPI said IMF’s forecasts often attract criticism and are sometimes proved wrong. It cited examples from countries such as Mexico and Zambia, where actual outcomes were better than IMF predictions. For instance, the Mexican government rejected a recent IMF forecast that projected a contraction in its economy, with President Claudia Sheinbaum insisting that public investment and internal policies would sustain growth.
Similarly, the group pointed out how the IMF wrongly predicted economic trouble for Zambia during the 2008 global financial crisis due to falling copper prices. The Zambian economy, however, remained stable.
The IMPI said it finds comfort in the view of the United States Department of State, which described Nigeria as an “economic miracle” and acknowledged the impact of current reforms.
On concerns raised by both the IMF and World Bank about Nigeria’s poverty levels, the group acknowledged that poverty remains a serious challenge. However, it argued that the current federal government is better positioned to address the issue compared to past administrations.
It said that before 2023, Nigeria had already been dealing with widespread poverty, with over 99 million people living in absolute poverty in 2010, despite the country benefiting from high crude oil prices at the time. The group said that during the oil boom between 2010 and 2014, Nigeria’s economic growth did not reflect in better living conditions for most citizens.
The IMPI insisted that ongoing reforms under the present administration offer the best chance yet to lift more Nigerians out of poverty. It cited the Central Bank of Nigeria’s March 2025 economic report, which showed continued economic activity expansion. According to the report, Nigeria’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 52.3 points, indicating growth for the third consecutive month in 2025.
The group concluded that the Nigerian economy is showing signs of improvement and that the focus should be on supporting government efforts rather than depending solely on foreign institutions’ forecasts, especially when those projections fail to align with on-the-ground realities.
