Nigeria has lost its position as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products after the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery ramped up operations earlier this year. According to a new report by energy consultancy CITAC, South Africa has now overtaken Nigeria as the biggest fuel importer on the continent, marking a major shift in Africa’s oil and fuel market.
The Dangote refinery, which started large-scale production in January 2024, is already shaking up trade patterns across sub-Saharan Africa and changing the way energy flows in the region. The refinery, located near Lagos, boasts a massive refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it the largest single-train refinery in the world. Its growing output has sharply reduced Nigeria’s long-standing reliance on imported petrol.
New data from CITAC revealed that in the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products, while South Africa brought in 4.2 million tonnes during the same period. This confirms South Africa’s new status as Africa’s biggest fuel importer.
Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC, explained that the decline in Nigeria’s imports is directly linked to the ongoing operation of the Dangote refinery. She noted, “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have consistently been the highest in sub-Saharan Africa. Crude throughput at refineries across the region rose by nearly 78 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023, mainly driven by Dangote’s output.”
For decades, Nigeria paradoxically imported huge quantities of refined fuel despite being Africa’s top crude oil producer. This was largely because its refineries were either non-operational or running below capacity. The new Dangote refinery is changing that narrative.
CITAC’s report estimates Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 will drop to about 6.4 million tonnes, less than half South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes. The report highlights how Nigeria’s fuel supply flows have shifted significantly since mid-2023, with Dangote’s refinery displacing most of the imported clean petroleum products in West Africa.
The Dangote refinery’s rapid rise to a 550,000 barrels-per-day refining capacity is a game-changer for Nigeria’s fuel market. While Nigeria’s import needs are shrinking, South Africa’s demand for imported fuel is growing due to challenges with its refining sector.
South Africa’s refining capacity has fallen sharply in recent years because of industrial accidents, aging facilities, and lack of investment. Several refineries have shut down since 2020, with the country now depending on imports to meet over 60 per cent of its fuel demand, according to Transnet SOC Ltd, South Africa’s state-owned logistics company.
The situation worsened in 2022 when the Sapref refinery—South Africa’s largest, a joint venture between Shell Plc and BP Plc—was shut down. Although the government acquired Sapref in 2023 hoping to restart it, no official relaunch date has been announced. An industry insider involved in the Shell divestment talks said, “South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is attracting foreign traders who can fill the gap.”
The shift in Nigeria’s import patterns is expected to have positive effects on the country’s economy. Analysts believe the reduced fuel import dependency could support the naira, ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and narrow Nigeria’s trade deficit. It could also help the government reduce its heavy spending on fuel subsidies.
Meanwhile, Swiss-based oil trader Mocoh is adjusting its business strategy as the Dangote refinery disrupts fuel trade routes in West Africa. Mocoh had long built its business on supplying petrol to Nigeria, largely through contracts with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).
Olivier Lassagne, Mocoh’s CEO, told Platts that early 2025 marked a “paradigm shift” for the company. Losing much of their petrol trade with NNPC pushed Mocoh to diversify and reposition itself for the future. Mocoh, which has been operating in Nigeria for nearly 30 years, is now partnering with Dangote to export excess fuel to regional markets including Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso.
Competition in the fuel trading sector is intense. Dangote has favored large trading firms like Vitol, BP, and Trafigura for major fuel offtake agreements. Meanwhile, newer players like Atmin, supported by Afreximbank, are looking to expand intra-African fuel trade.
Lassagne said, “Dangote values flexibility and market pricing. They don’t want to be locked into exclusive partners.” Mocoh aims to be a nimble and responsive player within the region as the fuel market continues to evolve.
The rise of the Dangote refinery is reshaping Africa’s downstream oil sector, reducing Nigeria’s fuel imports while increasing South Africa’s dependence on foreign supply. This shift is set to redefine energy dynamics across the continent in the years ahead.
