Analysts at Afrinvest have projected that Nigeria’s economy could grow between 4.3 per cent and 4.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by seasonal activities, improved foreign exchange supply, and stronger consumer spending linked to year-end festivities.
According to the latest weekly macroeconomic update from Afrinvest, the forecast follows the release of Nigeria’s third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures by the National Bureau of Statistics. The data showed that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.0 per cent year-on-year in Q3 2025. Although this was slightly lower than the 4.2 per cent recorded in Q2 2025, it was stronger than the 3.9 per cent growth achieved in Q3 2024.
Afrinvest stated that the expected Q4 growth would be supported by late harvest cycles, increased household spending during the festive period, better foreign exchange liquidity, and gradual easing of price pressure in the economy. These factors, the firm said, are likely to improve business confidence in the short term.
However, the analysts warned that the operating environment remains difficult. Challenges such as uncertain crude oil production levels, fiscal pressures, rising security concerns in parts of the country, and tight monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria could limit the pace of expansion, especially through their impact on bank lending, credit growth, and investor sentiment.
The report showed that Nigeria’s nominal GDP rose to N113.6 trillion in Q3 2025, up from N96.2 trillion in the same period of 2024. This represents an 18.1 per cent year-on-year increase, largely driven by higher price levels and inflationary effects. Growth was supported by both oil and non-oil sectors, although the non-oil economy continued to dominate national output.
The oil sector grew by 5.8 per cent year-on-year, supported by relatively stable crude oil production and ongoing efforts to curb oil theft. Average crude oil output stood at 1.64 million barrels per day in Q3 2025, slightly down from 1.68 million barrels per day in Q2 2025, but higher than 1.47 million barrels per day recorded in Q3 2024. Despite this improvement, oil contributed only 3.4 per cent to total GDP, while non-oil sectors accounted for 96.6 per cent, showing the growing importance of economic diversification.
Agriculture recorded a growth of 3.8 per cent year-on-year, benefiting from the main harvest season and stronger export earnings from food and cash crops. The industrial sector, excluding oil, expanded by 3.2 per cent, although this represented a slowdown compared to previous quarters due to higher production costs and weaker industrial demand.
The services sector remained the strongest part of the economy, growing by 4.2 per cent. This growth was driven by strong performance in information and communication technology, financial services, and real estate. Within the sector, trade grew by 2.0 per cent, supported by improved FX stability and stronger consumer purchasing power. Real estate growth moderated to 3.5 per cent from 3.8 per cent in the previous quarter, reflecting softer demand for residential and commercial properties.
A senior economist at a Lagos-based consultancy, who spoke anonymously, said the overall growth outlook remains positive but noted that the slowdown in some key sectors suggests a gradual loss of momentum, particularly in manufacturing and industrial activities. He stressed that the non-oil economy continues to serve as the main pillar of growth, showing resilience despite persistent structural and policy-related challenges.
Analysts agreed that sustaining growth in the coming quarters will depend largely on improved security, stable oil production, consistent FX reforms, better infrastructure, and policies that encourage private sector investment and job creation.
