Kenya’s trade relationship with China has continued to grow, but figures released for the first quarter of 2025 show that the balance remains heavily tilted in favour of Beijing. According to official data from the State Council of China, total trade between both countries stood at 16.13 billion yuan, equal to about US$2.24 billion, representing an 11.9 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024.
Within this trade volume, Chinese exports to Kenya rose by 11.8 per cent, while Kenya’s exports to China went up by 13.2 per cent. However, despite the growth in Kenya’s exports, the scale of imports from China continues to overshadow what Kenya is able to send out. Reports from the source revealed that Chinese goods worth Sh305 billion entered Kenya, a figure that once again highlights the country’s widening trade deficit.
Over the last decade, China has positioned itself as Kenya’s largest trading partner. The relationship has been strengthened by Chinese financing of major infrastructure projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway and several road networks across the country. However, these projects have also increased Kenya’s reliance on Chinese imports, ranging from construction materials and heavy machinery to consumer goods like electronics, clothing, and household equipment.
The Sh305 billion import figure carries serious implications for the Kenyan economy. One major issue is the trade imbalance, which underscores the country’s dependence on Chinese products. This situation has raised concerns among local manufacturers who believe their industries are being crowded out by cheaper Chinese alternatives. Traders in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu have also repeatedly complained about the influx of low-cost imports that reduce demand for locally made goods.
Another concern is the impact on Kenya’s currency. Analysts note that the high volume of imports puts pressure on the Kenyan shilling, making it weaker against major currencies. This in turn makes imports more expensive in the long run, creating additional fiscal pressure on government reserves. Economists argue that the country needs to strengthen its export base by adding value to agricultural products such as tea, coffee, and horticultural items, which are Kenya’s leading foreign exchange earners.
Kenya’s trade deficit with China is not a new debate. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics shows that the gap has been widening for years, with imports far outweighing exports. While Kenya sells agricultural produce and some raw materials to China, the value is very small compared to the massive inflow of finished goods. Industry stakeholders believe this imbalance needs urgent government attention through stronger trade policies and incentives for local manufacturers.
Small businesses are among the most affected by this imbalance. Many shop owners and local traders argue that Chinese products, though cheaper, often dominate the market, leaving little room for local production. Manufacturers in the textile industry, for instance, say that second-hand clothes and low-cost new imports from China are reducing their competitiveness. The same trend is seen in electronics, construction materials, and home appliances, where Chinese products have almost taken over.
Despite these concerns, Chinese investments in Kenya have also brought opportunities. Several Chinese companies have established operations in Nairobi and other cities, creating jobs and transferring some skills to Kenyan workers. Infrastructure projects funded by China have improved road networks, transport systems, and energy supply, which are vital for economic growth. But experts warn that without balanced trade, the benefits may not be sustainable in the long term.
In its outlook, the Kenyan government has stated that it will continue to seek new ways to improve trade ties with China while also exploring other markets for exports. Officials have said that efforts are ongoing to promote value addition in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing, which could increase Kenya’s export volumes and reduce the trade gap. At the same time, local manufacturers are urging the government to introduce protective measures, subsidies, and favourable policies that will help them compete better.
As things stand, the inflow of Sh305 billion worth of goods from China is both a sign of strong trade relations and a reminder of Kenya’s heavy dependence on foreign imports. Policymakers face the task of finding a balance that supports local industries while keeping international trade partnerships alive. The coming years will show whether Kenya can shift from being mainly an importer to becoming a stronger exporter in its trade with China.
