The recent pricing strategy of Dangote Petroleum Refinery has come under the spotlight, as industry analysts reveal that its pricing model is now encouraging fresh importation of petrol into Nigeria. A report by S&P Global indicates that the refinery, despite recent price cuts, has not adjusted its prices significantly in line with the global drop in oil prices, thus opening the door for marketers to explore cheaper foreign options.
The Dangote refinery, located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, has been at the centre of a price war in the downstream sector. In March 2025, the refinery reduced its petrol price to N860 per litre, down from around N1,100 per litre in September 2024. However, prices went up again due to the temporary halt of the naira-for-crude oil policy.
Between April 1 and April 9, the global Eurobob M1 petrol benchmark dropped by 17.9%, from $734.25 to $603 per metric tonne. Yet, Dangote’s gantry price dropped just slightly—1.7%—from N880 to N865 per litre within the same period. According to the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), this minimal adjustment created room for marketers to turn to international sources.
The refinery, with a massive production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has since responded with a further price slash. On Wednesday, the price at the gantry was reduced to N835 per litre, while partner filling stations were directed to sell at lower prices across the country. Petrol is now available at:
- N890/litre in Lagos (down from N920)
- N900/litre in the South-West (down from N930)
- N910/litre in the North-West and North-Central (down from N940)
- N920/litre in the South-East, South-South, and North-East (down from N950)
Retailers are also responding to this shift. Independent filling station SGR, with outlets in Mowe and Sagamu, is now selling petrol at N878 per litre. Heyden is selling at N885, while MRS continues at N890. However, many of Dangote’s partners and even NNPC retail outlets are still selling petrol between N910 and N920 per litre.
A source close to the refinery, who chose to remain anonymous, revealed that Alhaji Aliko Dangote had initially planned a major price cut on his 68th birthday on April 10. This plan was reportedly shelved due to the suspension of the naira-for-crude policy. The source also hinted that with the policy now back in play and global oil prices still crashing, a significant petrol price reduction may be on the way.
“The real plan was to give Nigerians a birthday gift in the form of cheaper fuel. But the policy change stalled that. Now that the policy has been reinstated and crude prices are dropping, another big price cut could be coming,” the source said.
Despite local production, the S&P Global report noted that Nigeria has become an even hotter destination for petrol exports from Europe. Usually, Europe exports more to the US during summer driving months, but due to fears of US tariffs and better pricing in West Africa, traders have diverted their cargoes.
Between March and April 2025, over 4 million metric tonnes of petrol have been projected to land in West Africa, mostly headed for Offshore Lome, a key import hub for Nigeria. This level of import has not been seen in more than two years.
The shift has also affected Nigeria’s daily petrol import volumes. According to the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Farouk Ahmed, petrol imports have fallen sharply—from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to just 14.7 million litres per day in April 2025.
Although Dangote’s refinery is designed to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on fuel imports, current pricing structures are creating gaps for international traders. As Nigeria continues to adjust to its evolving refining and fuel distribution systems, experts say consistent pricing aligned with global benchmarks will be crucial to stabilizing local supply and curbing excessive imports.
