The World Bank has reduced growth forecasts for nearly 70 percent of the world’s economies due to rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the Bank projects that global economic growth will slow to 2.3 percent in 2025, marking the weakest performance in 17 years and nearly half a percentage point lower than earlier predictions for the year.
Despite this slowdown, the Bank does not expect the world to enter a recession. However, it warns that if current forecasts hold true, the average global growth in the first seven years of the 2020s will be the slowest since the 1960s — a clear sign of the tough economic environment ahead.
Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience a modest growth rebound, rising to 3.7 percent in 2025, with a further increase to an average of 4.2 percent in 2026 and 2027. This forecast depends heavily on factors such as stable external conditions, expected declines in inflation, and the resolution of ongoing regional conflicts.
Although the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa is more optimistic than some other regions, the Bank warns that growth is still below the region’s long-term average and remains too low to significantly reduce extreme poverty. The region’s growth prospects have been revised downward by 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.2 points for 2026, largely because of worsening global conditions, rising trade barriers, and weakening confidence in markets.
Middle East and North Africa Growth
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is also expected to see improved growth, forecast to reach 2.7 percent in 2025, and accelerate to 3.7 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027. The main driver is a gradual increase in oil production, which is expected to offset challenges such as lower oil prices and export constraints caused by rising trade barriers.
Trade Barriers and Inflation Pressure
Globally, growth is expected to slow in about 60 percent of developing economies in 2025, with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent, inching slightly higher to 3.9 percent in 2026 and 2027. These figures are below the average growth rates of the 2010s. The Bank points to increasing tariffs — a policy strongly supported by the current United States government — and tight labour markets as main factors pushing up global inflation and keeping it above levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sub-Saharan Africa has not escaped the impact of these trade barriers. The report highlights how rising tariffs and trade restrictions hurt the region’s growth prospects by lowering global demand for commodities, which many African countries rely on for export earnings.
Risks to the Outlook
The Bank also points out several risks that could worsen the global and regional outlook. These include:
Continued weak global growth due to policy uncertainty and further trade restrictions
A potential slowdown in China’s economy, which could escalate geopolitical tensions worldwide
The ongoing war in Sudan, which risks pushing up prices in neighbouring countries and destabilizing the region
Adverse weather conditions that could worsen poverty and food insecurity in vulnerable areas
Conclusion
The World Bank’s latest outlook makes it clear that while some regions like Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East may see modest growth improvements, the global economic environment remains fragile. Rising trade tensions, inflation pressures, geopolitical conflicts, and climate risks all pose significant challenges that require careful management to avoid more severe economic problems.
