Nigeria’s current account surplus is expected to rise to 6.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026, up from 4.8 percent recorded in 2025, according to the World Bank.
The improvement is expected to be driven mainly by higher oil export earnings and stronger foreign exchange inflows as global oil prices remain elevated.
The World Bank said oil-producing economies, including Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, the Republic of Congo and South Sudan, are benefiting from stronger hydrocarbon revenues and improved terms of trade.
“Oil-exporting economies are projected to see a marked improvement in their current account balances in 2026,” the World Bank said, citing higher oil export revenues and stronger terms of trade.
Surplus expected to narrow from 2027
Despite the expected improvement in 2026, Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to gradually decline to 3.4 percent of GDP by 2028.
The World Bank expects the moderation to come as oil prices normalise and import demand increases.
Nigeria’s external position has already strengthened in 2026. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria showed that the country recorded a current account surplus of $7.54 billion in the second quarter, up 67.9 percent from $4.49 billion in the first quarter. The Q2 figure was also 45.8 percent higher than the $5.17 billion recorded in the same period of 2025.
The improvement was supported by a wider goods trade surplus, stronger export receipts and increased diaspora remittances.
Oil prices remain a key factor
The World Bank said higher global oil prices could continue to support Nigeria’s external and fiscal positions by increasing export earnings and foreign exchange inflows.
However, it warned that Nigeria remains exposed to developments in global commodity markets and geopolitical tensions, particularly instability in the Middle East.
While higher oil prices could strengthen the position of oil exporters, countries that depend heavily on imports could face increased costs and pressure on their external balances.
The Bank expects Nigeria’s economic growth to rise from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent annually in 2027 and 2028.
It said the stronger outlook would be supported by improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
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Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus to Hit 6% of GDP in 2026
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Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to reach 6% of GDP in 2026, driven by higher oil earnings and stronger foreign exchange inflows.
