Political parties that recorded strong performances in South Africa’s 2024 national and provincial elections are likely to consolidate their gains in the forthcoming local government polls, while underperforming parties may face further electoral setbacks.
This is according to a report by the Centre for Strategic Leadership (CSL), presented to investors and stakeholders ahead of the 2026 municipal elections, which are expected to hold in November, although some projections extend to January 2027.
The report highlights an increasingly competitive political landscape, with major parties expected to jostle for dominance across key metros. The ruling African National Congress (ANC), which saw its support decline from 57 per cent to 40 per cent in the 2024 elections, alongside the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), whose vote share dipped from 10.8 per cent to 9.5 per cent, could face further erosion in municipal contests.
In contrast, the Democratic Alliance (DA) recorded a modest increase, while the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party), contesting for the first time, emerged as the third-largest political force with 14.5 per cent of the vote.
Uncertainty, however, surrounds leadership dynamics within the ANC, particularly in Johannesburg, where moves are reportedly underway to recall Mayor Dada Morero.
The CSL report projects a keen contest for control of the City of Johannesburg between the DA and ActionSA, led by Herman Mashaba. It noted that the eventual mayorship may depend on the ability of either party to forge a viable coalition.
Johannesburg, South Africa’s largest metro, continues to grapple with longstanding structural challenges, including deteriorating infrastructure, weak service delivery, struggling public healthcare facilities and persistent political instability.
Despite these setbacks, the city remains the most economically advanced in both South Africa and the wider African continent. However, its global competitiveness has waned, with both Johannesburg and Cape Town ranking near the bottom of the Global Financial Centres Index.
The report identifies Mashaba’s tenure between 2016 and 2019 as a benchmark for governance in the city, describing it as a period marked by “pro-poor” policies and relatively effective administration—standards it argues have not been matched in subsequent years.
It further characterised the period from 2020 to 2026 as politically turbulent, citing frequent leadership changes and what it described as opportunistic alliances among parties, often at the expense of coherent governance.
Drawing a link between governance outcomes and electoral performance, the CSL noted that the ANC’s electoral dominance in the mid-2000s coincided with strong economic growth, job creation and service delivery. However, following internal shifts after its 2007 Polokwane conference, these indicators declined, alongside its electoral support in subsequent local government elections.
Johannesburg’s political terrain is now defined by fragmentation and intense multiparty competition, with no fewer than 18 parties represented in the municipal council—the highest in the country. This dispersion of power has elevated the influence of smaller parties, often positioning them as kingmakers in coalition arrangements.
Analysts say both the ANC and DA have experienced ideological fragmentation over time, with splinter groups emerging across the political spectrum. For the ANC, these include formations such as the EFF and others, while the DA has seen the rise of parallel liberal-leaning parties.
Given the current dynamics, the report concludes that it is highly unlikely any single party will secure an outright majority in Johannesburg in the upcoming elections.
While the existing coalition government under Morero has delivered modest outcomes, expectations remain high for improved governance, particularly in critical areas such as water supply, electricity, waste management and infrastructure maintenance.
Looking ahead, the CSL noted that the experience of leading political figures such as Helen Zille and Mashaba in managing major metros could provide some reassurance to investors, particularly if political stability and effective coalitions are achieved.
