By Radarr Africa Business Desk
RABAT, November 13 (Radarr Africa) – Morocco’s 2027 finance bill assumes Brent crude will average $75 a barrel next year, a bet that fund manager Marogest says is the main weakness in the budget framework as the subsidy bill, the trade deficit and state financing needs all depend on energy prices.
The government expects Brent to average $87 in 2026, so the 2027 assumption is a 14 per cent fall. Brent reached $114 on October 27, 2026, according to Marogest’s analysis of the bill. At that level, the price was $39 a barrel, or about 52 per cent, above the budget’s reference. Brent was trading at about $93.53 on Thursday, according to The Associated Press.
The bill sets aside 19.4 billion dirhams for the compensation fund in 2027. For 2026, the initial finance law allocated 13.9 billion dirhams and an extra 8 billion dirhams was opened in May, bringing the total to about 21.8 billion dirhams. Marogest notes that the allocation had fallen every year, from 41.8 billion dirhams in 2022 to 30.1 billion in 2023, 25.3 billion in 2024 and 17.7 billion in 2025, before the trend reversed in 2026.
For butane, the government assumes a reference price of $600 a tonne in 2027. The price was $730 in October, 21.7 per cent above that assumption, against an average of $611 a tonne from January to August 2026. Between January and August, state support amounted to about 9 billion dirhams for butane, 2 billion dirhams for sugar and 800 million dirhams for flour and soft wheat. Support for a 12-kilogramme gas cylinder is about 61.8 dirhams, up 15.7 per cent year on year, Marogest says. It does not estimate the possible extra cost, which it says depends on prices, consumption volumes and international markets.
Petrol and diesel prices have been liberalised since December 2015 and no longer receive direct support from the compensation fund. Aid to transport professionals nevertheless reached 2.5 billion dirhams by the end of September 2026, which Marogest sees as a growing budget risk if fuel prices stay high or the aid is extended. The energy import bill reached 68.6 billion dirhams in the first half of 2026, and higher prices would widen the trade deficit and raise foreign currency needs.
On the economy, the government forecasts growth of 3.7 per cent and inflation of 1.5 per cent in 2027, with nominal GDP rising 5.5 per cent. Marogest notes that Bank Al-Maghrib’s projections, which it cites, put growth at no more than 2.9 per cent.
The bill expects tax revenue to rise 15.6 per cent to 423.5 billion dirhams. Corporate tax is forecast at 124.8 billion dirhams, up 32.2 per cent from the initial 2026 forecast. Marogest estimates that actual 2026 corporate tax receipts will come to 109 to 114 billion dirhams, which would imply growth of roughly 10 to 14 per cent, and warns that higher energy costs could squeeze company margins and cut corporate tax contributions.
The deficit is capped at 3 per cent of GDP, or 58.7 billion dirhams, with 60 billion dirhams of external financing planned. Total financing needs, the deficit plus debt repayments, come to 165.7 billion dirhams. Domestic financing needs would be 105.7 billion dirhams, or about 8.8 billion dirhams a month on the Treasury bond market, assuming all planned external financing is secured. Marogest says a shortfall in tax revenue or external financing would add pressure.
Marogest concludes that meeting the budget’s targets depends largely on energy markets easing as the government expects.
