By Radarr Africa Business Desk
TUNIS, November 12 (Radarr Africa) – Tunisia’s draft 2027 budget projects economic growth of 3.1 per cent, a budget deficit of TND 14.615 billion and Treasury financing needs of TND 28.122 billion, according to figures from the draft Finance Bill reported by the Tunis Afrique Presse agency (TAP).
The draft puts the state budget at TND 68.895 billion, compared with TND 63.575 billion in the 2026 Finance Law, an increase of about 8.37 per cent. Revenue is estimated at TND 54.280 billion, of which tax revenue accounts for TND 49.6 billion, non-tax revenue TND 4.330 billion and grants TND 350 million. Own resources would cover about 78.3 per cent of budgetary expenditure. Including debt principal repayments, loans and net Treasury advances, the overall budget reaches TND 82.402 billion.
On financing, the draft envisages domestic borrowing of about TND 19.845 billion, roughly 74 per cent of new borrowing, and external borrowing of TND 6.877 billion. It also provides for an exceptional central bank financing facility of up to TND 9.8 billion, interest-free and repayable over 15 years with a three-year grace period. Debt principal falling due in 2027 exceeds TND 13 billion.
The wage bill is put at TND 27.349 billion. Subsidies and compensation total TND 11.846 billion, made up of TND 7.09 billion for hydrocarbons and electricity, TND 4.036 billion for basic products and TND 720 million for transport. Wages and compensation together account for nearly 57 per cent of total expenditure. The energy subsidy estimates assume an average Brent price of $80 a barrel in 2027.
The economic budget accompanying the bill assumes growth of 3.1 per cent in 2027, up from an estimated 2.7 per cent in 2026. Exports of goods and services are projected to rise 8 per cent, against 7.5 per cent in 2026, while import growth slows to 7.9 per cent from an expected 10 per cent. The investment rate is forecast to rise to 16.4 per cent of gross domestic product from 15.5 per cent, and foreign direct investment to reach TND 4.8 billion, up from TND 4 billion in 2026.
Speaking to TAP, economist and academic Safouane Ben Aissa said the gap between the deficit and total financing needs shows that much new borrowing refinances existing debt rather than funding new spending. He said the large wage and compensation bill limits room for public investment and services, and that the issue is the effectiveness of spending more than its volume.
Ben Aissa said heavy reliance on domestic borrowing may reduce direct currency risk but could crowd out private firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, in access to bank credit. He said debt sustainability depends on the gap between borrowing costs and growth, and on the primary balance, not only on the deficit. He argued that revenue should come from a broader tax base, less evasion, the formalisation of informal activity and a better business climate rather than higher tax rates alone.
The figures are targets set out in the draft Finance Bill and remain subject to review by Parliament, which can change the final allocations.
