By Radarr Africa Business Desk
LAGOS, November 12 (Radarr Africa) – Nigeria produced an average of 1.51 million barrels of crude oil a day, excluding condensates, in October, staying above its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels a day for a sixth consecutive month, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show.
The output equals 101 per cent of the quota. Including condensates, total production averaged 1.68 million barrels a day in October, within a daily range of 1.60 million to 1.79 million barrels a day. That was a marginal 1.7 per cent decline from the previous month.
On the NUPRC’s figures excluding condensates, the run of compliance began in May, when output reached 1.53 million barrels a day, the first time in 10 months that Nigeria had met its target. Production then rose to 1.55 million barrels a day in June, the peak of the period, before easing to 1.51 million in July and 1.50 million in August. September came in at 1.53 million barrels a day, followed by 1.51 million in October.
The commission’s terminal data show Forcados as the largest source of crude and condensate in October, averaging 318,490 barrels a day. Bonny followed with 311,020 barrels a day, then the Qua Iboe Terminal with 173,970 barrels, Escravos with 134,670 barrels and Bonga with 106,650 barrels a day.
The NUPRC credited the steadier performance to improved operational stability, higher production uptime and more efficient crude evacuation. It said the October results reflect efforts by operators and industry stakeholders to improve efficiency, maintain asset integrity and strengthen production reliability.
Before the current run, Nigeria regularly fell short of its OPEC allocation. The shortfalls were linked mainly to crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure and operational disruptions. Sustaining the recovery matters for government revenue, foreign exchange inflows and the country’s fiscal position, because crude oil sales remain the main source of the country’s dollar earnings.
The October dip of 1.7 per cent in total crude and condensate output followed a September figure that had been higher, a reminder that monthly volumes can move even when the quota is met.
The output data arrive as Nigeria’s external reserves remain near record levels. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data show reserves stood at $54.93 billion as of November 9, down $330 million from the previous reading and 0.59 per cent below the $55.26 billion peak recorded on October 27. They remain 26.65 per cent above the $43.37 billion recorded a year earlier.
Quest Merchant Bank said in a report that gross reserves rose $295 million month on month to $55.2 billion at the end of October, taking accretion since the start of 2026 to $9.7 billion. It put the reserves at their highest level in 18 years and said they cover about 15.8 months of merchandise imports. The bank credited elevated crude prices, improved production, remittances and external financing for the build-up.
Oil prices have since fallen sharply. Brent crude dropped 16 per cent in the week to November 6, its steepest weekly decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and fell almost 5 per cent more on Monday, November 9, to trade around $93.75 a barrel, according to Reuters.
Across the wider producer group, a Reuters survey found that OPEC’s 11 members raised output by 1.38 million barrels a day to 22.87 million barrels a day in October. JP Morgan estimated the global oil surplus at about 1.4 million barrels a day for the month, according to the Reuters report.
