By Radarr Africa Business Desk
LAGOS, November 9 (Radarr Africa) – Traders see about a 73 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, up from 60 per cent during Thursday’s stock market sell-off, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, ahead of the release of US consumer price data on Tuesday.
The shift followed the October jobs report, which showed the US economy added 165,000 jobs against a consensus forecast of 65,000. Wages rose 0.4 per cent, unemployment ticked down to 4.1 per cent, and upward revisions added 84,000 jobs for August and September combined. The three-month average is 137,000 jobs, compared with a 12-month average of 45,000 before the October data.
Wage growth was 3.1 per cent year on year, below the 3.7 per cent headline inflation rate. Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs, health care 45,000, and transportation and warehousing 25,000.
Collin Martin of the Schwab Center for Financial Research said investors should still expect a rate hike in December given the relatively strong report and sticky inflation.
Markets were already under strain. The S&P 500 had its worst daily loss since April 2025 on Thursday, with technology down 7 per cent. Schwab’s market snapshot published on Friday showed the S&P 500 at 7,353.73, down 4.36 per cent, the Dow at 51,523.06, down 3.44 per cent, and the Nasdaq Composite at 24,314.99, down 5.52 per cent. The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.88 per cent.
The Cboe Volatility Index stood at 26.36. Gold was at $4,060.70, down 1.31 per cent, WTI crude at $91.10, and Bitcoin at $75,865. Retail traders’ net selling was the largest since the 2020 Covid collapse, Schwab said.
By midday Thursday, the high-yield credit spread had widened 15 basis points and investment-grade spreads had risen 4 basis points. Only two other days in the past year saw a comparable high-yield move.
The week ahead brings October consumer price inflation and core inflation on Tuesday, November 10, a key input for Fed policy. The US bond market is closed on Wednesday for Veterans Day. Existing home sales are due on Thursday, and producer price data on Friday. Earnings are due on Monday from Constellation Energy, Barrick Mining, Occidental Petroleum and Rocket Lab.
The preliminary November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was expected at 47.2, against 48.0 in October, and longer-term inflation expectations were 3.5 per cent in October. A rate rise would raise borrowing costs for emerging-market governments and companies that borrow in dollars, including in Africa.
