By Radarr Africa Business Desk
LONDON, November 14 (Radarr Africa) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand will fall by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 as high fuel prices, supply disruptions and faster adoption of electric vehicles curb consumption, while OPEC left its own demand outlook unchanged in a separate monthly report.
In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA projected demand averaging 102.3 million bpd this year. The agency expects the contraction to ease in the fourth quarter to 2.7 million bpd year on year, from an average decline of 4.4 million bpd in the second and third quarters.
The IEA forecast a recovery of 2 million bpd in 2027, with liquefied petroleum gas, ethane and naphtha expected to supply about 80% of the increase. Demand for transport fuels will grow only modestly, it said, as high prices accelerate electrification and efficiency gains.
On supply, the agency said global output rose 2.3 million bpd to 105.4 million bpd in October, after a 3 million bpd increase in September. Output was up 5.3 million bpd from August, mainly because of higher exports from the Gulf, despite continued attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers. The IEA raised its fourth-quarter 2026 supply forecast by 3.3 million bpd.
Even so, global supply is still expected to fall by an average of 4.8 million bpd in 2026 before rebounding by 6.6 million bpd to 108.1 million bpd in 2027. The IEA said the 2027 rebound includes a 5.3 million bpd rise in Gulf production and a 1.1 million bpd gain from the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana.
Gulf exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million bpd in October, still 26% below levels before the war. Crude exports rose to 15 million bpd, or 82% of pre-war volumes. Exports of refined products and LPG remain at roughly half of pre-war levels because of continued disruption.
Diesel remains the main concern. The IEA described “the severe tightness in product supply, especially for diesel” as the overriding worry for the market and for consumers. It warned that continued attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure could slow the recovery in exports and prolong supply disruptions.
Global refinery supply fell 1.3 million bpd from September to a seasonal low of 81.3 million bpd in October, the agency said. Throughput is expected to reach 84.7 million bpd in December. For the full year, refinery throughput is forecast to fall by an average of 2.2 million bpd in 2026, then rise 2.5 million bpd to 84.3 million bpd in 2027.
Refinery margins weakened in most markets. The IEA said record freight costs hurt Asian refiners, while United States refiners benefited from cheaper crude but lost profit as petrol prices fell.
Global oil inventories rose 52 million barrels, or about 1.7 million bpd, in October, the first monthly increase since June. An 86-million-barrel rise in oil on water drove the gain, while land-based inventories kept falling and are at their lowest level since at least 2016. Observed global stocks have fallen by a cumulative 462 million barrels since the war began, the IEA said.
The agency added that attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are restricting supplies from that country to international markets, compounding losses from the Middle East.
OPEC, in its Monthly Oil Market Report, kept its global demand growth forecasts unchanged after a series of downgrades this year. It expects 2026 demand to grow by 180,000 bpd to 105.72 million bpd, and 2027 demand to grow by 2.55 million bpd to 108.28 million bpd. The 2026 growth estimate is well below the 1.4 million bpd the group forecast before the war between the United States and Iran.
OPEC cut its 2026 forecast for China, now expecting demand to fall 70,000 bpd to 16.81 million bpd, followed by a 470,000 bpd rebound in 2027. China’s consumption in September was 17.25 million bpd, down 110,000 bpd from a year earlier.
The group put non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth at 640,000 bpd in 2026 and 620,000 bpd in 2027, taking output to 54.84 million bpd and 55.45 million bpd. It forecast that Qatar’s output would drop by 860,000 bpd in 2026, and that United States liquids growth would slow from 500,000 bpd to 30,000 bpd in 2027.
OPEC+ crude output rose 2.04 million bpd in October to 41.23 million bpd, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The United Arab Emirates left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May 2026. OPEC said global stocks fell 537 million barrels from the February peak to 8.043 billion barrels at the end of September.
