By Radarr Africa Business Desk
LAGOS, November 4 (Radarr Africa) – An energy analyst has projected that petrol could sell for about N1,411 a litre in Lagos in November if freight, insurance and other import-related premiums stay at their current levels, a forecast that oil marketers have partly disputed.
The projection came from Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, and was reported by Nairametrics on November 3. The publication said the figure applies only if the premiums remain unchanged for November deliveries.
Emmanuel’s build-up starts with a crude delivery cost of $145.60, to which $1.21 of NIMASA and Nigerian Ports Authority levies and tariffs is added, giving a landing cost of $146.81. Converted at a rate of 8.50 to the metric tonne, that is N1,247.89, according to the report.
Adding a refinery premium of $80 brings the total to $1,327.89 per metric tonne. After applying an exchange-rate factor of 1,400 over 1,351, the analyst arrived at an ex-gate refinery price of about N1,376 a litre. Trucking and related charges of N35 a litre take the Lagos pump price to about N1,411, Nairametrics reported.
The report said physical cargoes cost about $30 more than futures contracts. Supplies delivered outside Lagos attract N100 a litre for insurance and truck freight, plus N40 a litre for throughput, according to industry estimates cited in the article. Domestic crude supplied under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation carries freight costs of $9 to $12 a barrel.
Emmanuel said price figures available online could be about 30 per cent below the actual cost of landing physical cargoes. He identified insurance, freight and the dated Brent spread as the biggest drivers of rising petrol prices, according to the report.
Nairametrics noted that the Dangote Refinery sources about 40 per cent of its feedstock internationally and prices its products against import parity. In July 2026, oil marketers accused major importers of pricing imported petrol at about N1,350 a litre, above the refinery’s price, the report said.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) rejected the forecast. Its National Publicity Secretary, Chinedu Ukadike, said: “All those things are speculation.” He added that crude prices had not risen further and that petrol already sells for around N1,400 a litre in some areas, according to the report.
Ukadike also opposed what he called the indiscriminate issuance of import licences. He urged the Federal Government to address price volatility, import licences and the sale of petroleum products in United States dollars, and said international Platts pricing for imports was about 20 per cent higher than the Dangote refinery’s prices.
Joseph Obele, National Publicity Secretary of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), doubted that prices would rise again, citing easing tensions in the Middle East and falling crude prices, Nairametrics reported.
Isa Alheri, an independent oil marketer, took a more cautious view. He said petrol could still rise above N1,400 a litre depending on market conditions, and that marketers might need to adjust prices to avoid selling below replacement cost, according to the report.
The forecast follows a price cut by the Dangote Refinery. The Rio Times, citing Naijanews, reported on November 3 that the refinery lowered its petrol price by N55 to N1,210 a litre. Radarr Africa has not independently confirmed that figure.
Brent crude was quoted at about $105 to $109 on November 3 and 4 in different market summaries, after trading above $110 earlier in the week, on hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict, according to Business Tech Africa and the Rio Times. The two summaries differ on the exact level.
The Nairametrics article was written by senior analyst Chike Olisah.
