By Radarr Africa Business Desk
October 26 (Radarr Africa) – Nigeria’s benchmark Bonny Light crude rose to $115 a barrel last week as attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, Nairametrics reported, while Brent crude eased on Monday on reports of mediation efforts in Tehran.
Nairametrics said on October 24 that West Texas Intermediate settled at $103 a barrel “on supply-side concerns”, while dated Brent advanced to between $110 and $114 per barrel amid the conflict in the Middle East, supply disruptions and higher freight costs.
On Monday, Brent fell 1.6 per cent to $114.88 after reports that Qatari mediators were in Tehran over the weekend, working with the United States to ease regional tensions, Reuters reported through Business Recorder. US crude fell 1.9 per cent to $101.29 a barrel.
Reuters said Brent futures rose 6.2 per cent last week to their highest weekly close since mid-2022, as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia raised concerns about energy supplies.
The shipping risk is substantial. Nairametrics cited the Washington Institute, via Reuters, as saying at least 28 vessels have been struck this month, with 113 attacks on shipping recorded since February. The International Maritime Organization has recorded 120 incidents, the outlet reported.
Nairametrics said Bonny Light usually commands a premium to Brent during Middle East supply shocks because it is a light, sweet, low-sulphur grade. It added that higher world Brent prices and increased domestic production remain key drivers of Nigeria’s fiscal receipts and foreign exchange.
Nigerian output has been recovering. Nairametrics reported that crude and condensate production averaged 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from about 1.53 million barrels per day earlier in the year. It said theft and pipeline tapping are easing around the Nembe Creek and Trans-Niger Pipeline corridors.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) puts the country’s crude and condensate reserves at 37 billion barrels, according to the report.
Domestic refining is also changing the export picture. Nairametrics said the target for local refining is about 1.5 million barrels per day, including the Dangote refinery, and that more light-sweet grades such as Bonny Light, Qua Iboe and Forcados are being sent to local refineries rather than exported to Europe and Asia. The outlet said that tightens export volumes and would continue to do so until production approaches 2 million barrels per day.
The oil-price rise is also feeding inflation worries among central banks. Reuters reported that oil-driven inflation is likely to concern every central bank meeting this week, with rate rises “a matter of time” even where some hold for now.
Nairametrics said the geopolitical backdrop remains unsettled. It reported that US President Donald Trump warned Washington could strike Iran again, while saying he knew of no strikes, and that Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkiye, said a strike could happen this weekend. It also reported that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will attend a gas-exporters summit in Moscow next week and meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The Nairametrics report did not give the 2026 budget oil-price benchmark or the naira exchange rate, so the direct effect on government revenue could not be assessed from the report alone.
