By Radarr Africa Business Desk
LAGOS, October 24 (Radarr Africa) – Ghana is set to overtake Ethiopia as Africa’s eighth-largest economy in 2026, according to projections in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October World Economic Outlook, as reported by GBC Ghana Online and Addis Standard.
The IMF projects Ghana’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at $128.64 billion in 2026, with real growth of 5.7 per cent. Ethiopia is projected at $127.15 billion, putting Ghana ahead by $1.49 billion. Ethiopia would rank ninth, with the Democratic Republic of Congo projected at $122.28 billion, Addis Standard reported.
Addis Standard, published on AllAfrica on October 19, attributed the changes in rank mainly to exchange-rate movements rather than differences in real growth. Ethiopia is forecast to grow by 9.2 per cent in 2026 and 7.8 per cent in 2027, faster than Ghana, but its birr depreciated after the government’s July 2024 foreign exchange reforms, which lowered the dollar value of its output. Those reforms were part of a programme supported by an IMF Extended Credit Facility of about $3.4 billion.
GBC Ghana Online, which published its report on October 22, put Ghana’s 2025 GDP at $108.1 billion, with growth of 4.8 per cent, a ranking of tenth. It said Ghana is projected to move to eighth in 2026.
The same report listed the projected 2026 African rankings at the top of the table. South Africa leads with $490 billion, followed by Egypt at $435.34 billion and Nigeria at $390.37 billion. GBC listed Algeria, Morocco, Angola and Kenya as fourth to seventh.
Addis Standard also reported that Kenya has overtaken Ethiopia as East Africa’s largest economy in nominal dollar terms. The IMF projects Kenya’s real growth at 4.5 per cent in 2026 and 4.7 per cent in 2027, while growth in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast at 4.5 per cent in both years.
Ghana’s recovery follows a financial crisis marked by currency depreciation, high inflation and mounting public debt. In 2023 the country secured a $3 billion IMF support programme, Addis Standard reported. Ghana’s main export earners are gold, cocoa, oil and gas, and financial services.
The IMF’s October outlook is titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices.” According to the Addis Standard report, it warns that high debt-servicing costs, limited foreign exchange reserves and declining aid are constraining governments’ ability to respond to economic shocks.
The rankings are in nominal dollar terms, which means they move with exchange rates as well as with real output. Both reports said the IMF’s figures are projections for 2026.
